I de seneste ti år har ikke-amerikanske aktieindeks klaret sig langt dårligere end de amerikanske, med kun to små undtagelser. Værst har det været i år. Merrill tror ikke, at billedet vil ændre sig i det nye år. Den internationale Valutafond venter en amerikansk vækst i BNP på 8,1 pct., mod 7,4 pct. i eurozonen. En svækket vækst i Emerging Markets, herunder Kina, vil også forstærke den amerikanske føring. En svækkelse af forsyningsproblemerne og en bedre indsats mod pandemien i Europa end i USA kan ændre billedet, men Merrill tror ikke, det vil ske i afgørende omfang. Amerikanske aktier vil generelt give et bedre afkast end næsten alle andre. Spørgsmålet er udelukkende, hvor meget de europæiske aktier kan vinde terræn.
Can Non-U.S. Equities Regain Ground in 2022?
As of this past month-end, non-U.S. Equities are on course to underperform U.S. markets
for a 10th year in the 12 years since 2009.
During this decade-plus stretch, each of the
major non-U.S. regions of Europe, Japan and emerging markets have registered similar
cumulative price return deficits relative to the S&P 500 of 281 percentage points (ppts),
238 ppts and 287 ppts, according to Bloomberg, respectively. And this year has so far
marked the single largest annual return difference over the period (Exhibit 3).
As we now look ahead into 2022, it will be important for investors to consider whether this span of
underperformance can extend further or whether it could begin to reverse.
As the fundamental basis for corporate earnings, the outlook for nominal growth continues
to favor the U.S. over most other major markets. Official estimates from the International
Monetary Fund project slower nominal dollar gross domestic product (GDP) growth of
7.4% for the eurozone and 5.5% for Japan than the 8.1% forecast for the U.S. in 2022.
And
though emerging economies are projected to lead growth in global nominal GDP next year
at 8.4%, the biggest driver of the group in China is set to post a significant slowdown due
to local credit and regulatory tightening, slower residential construction and an ongoing
structural shift away from fixed investment. At the same time, pockets of stress from
runaway inflation are expected to cause a sharp deceleration in real activity within other
major regional economies of emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) and Latin
America in Turkey and Brazil.
To the extent that supply chain bottlenecks eventually begin to moderate next year,
manufacturing output could nonetheless receive a lift in key areas such as autos and
machinery. And this would come as a source of support for more trade-dependent
economies outside the U.S., such as Western Europe and emerging Asia, especially on the
back of currency weakness across these regions in 2021.
But the new risk from
coronavirus variants could still shift the outlook here, with the potential to cause
significant interruptions to output. This is likely to depend in part on local vaccination
rates, which have moved ahead of the U.S. in Europe and Japan but which remain relatively
low in many individual economies in the emerging world—particularly within lower-income
countries.
