Merrill har en god pointe i en analyse af virkningen af Ukraine-krigen og sanktionerne. Europa er hårdest ramt, og det presser den økonomiske vækst i Europa, mens USA næsten ikke rammes – direkte i hvert fald. Men Europa er det største udenlandske marked for amerikanske virksomheder. 60 pct. af den udenlandske indtjening kommer fra Europa. Derfor kan det slå tilbage på de amerikanske virksomheders indtjening – også selv om udlandshandelen er temmelig beskeden i forhold til indtjeningen på hjemmemarkedet. Enkelte sektorer er forholdsvis meget afhængig af økonomien og salget i Europa: Technology, Pharmaceutical, Food and Beverages, Energy, and Capital Goods.
What Happens in Europe Doesn’t Stay in Europe: An Earnings Hit to
the U.S.?
Europe has emerged as the weak link in the global economy, staggered by the conflict in
Ukraine and soaring energy costs. Even before tensions erupted in the heart of the
continent, the pace of growth was cooling across the pond, notably in Europe’s largest
economy: Germany.
The upshot: Weaker-than-expected real growth in Europe, coupled with
a stronger U.S. dollar versus the euro could spell some downside S&P earnings pressures in
the months ahead.
As the accompanying exhibits highlight, Europe matters to the bottom line of Corporate
America, with the region accounting for over 60% of foreign affiliate income, a proxy for
global earnings. Asia ranks a distant second (21%), followed by North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA) partners Canada and Mexico (10%), according to the Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
Why Europe? Because the region is large, wealthy and relatively
integrated. It also possesses a large pool of skilled labor, a business environment in sync with
America’s, and is a world leader in innovation and knowledge-based activities.
What’s not to like about Europe?
Europe’s importance to U.S. multinationals is disguised by traditional trade figures. Note
from Exhibit 2 that U.S. exports to Europe (goods and services) have flat-lined for the past
decade; however, also note that what the U.S. exports to Europe ($622 billion in 2020) is just
a fraction of what U.S. affiliates sell directly in-country ($3.1 trillion in 2020, the last year of
available data).
Trade figures—the standard benchmark of Wall Street to gauge global
integration—don’t even begin to capture the depth and integration of Corporate America in
Europe, and hence the risk to U.S. earnings.
The U.S. sectors most leveraged to Europe:
Technology, Pharmaceutical, Food and Beverages, Energy, and Capital Goods.
