Med de voksende spændinger mellem Ukraine og Rusland bliver markederne ramt meget hårdere end i kølvandet på Ruslands annektering af Krim, vurderer Merrill. Det skyldes, at der for alvor er kommer geopolitiske spændinger, dvs. at den aktuelle krise har globale virkninger. De russiske markeder bliver ramt allerhårdest, men også de europæiske markeder bliver ramt på grund af stigende energipriser og den virkning, som den forholdsvis stærke handel mellem Rusland og Europa har. Hele verden kommer nærmere en stagflation med stagnerende vækst og stigende inflation. Det får virkning for den økonomiske vækst og virksomhedernes indtjening. Det bliver de to forhold, der på sigt bliver mest afgørende for markedsudviklingen. Merrill holder dog fortsat fast på globale aktier som den bedste investeringsstrategi.
The Latest—Ukraine/Russia Market Update
Market uncertainty has increased again on rising Russia-Ukraine tensions, with European Equities, in particular, coming under pressure in recent days.
Past experience from Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea suggests that markets closest to the epicenter of the conflict are likely to see the most significant effect from any further escalation. Russian Equity and currency markets were the hardest hit eight years ago, and potential Financial sector, energy or technology sanctions pose a major risk in the current environment.
Western European markets are also exposed through Russian dependence in trade and energy, meaning that any prospective shock to local supply would only exacerbate the existing headwinds from high energy prices, particularly for large gas-importing countries such as Germany and Italy.
More broadly, we believe the initial hit to global risk assets from a Russian invasion could potentially be more significant than following the annexation of Crimea. The geostrategic stakes are much higher this time and the global macro backdrop is more vulnerable to a “stagflationary” shock.
As we look deeper into the year, however, we would expect the more fundamental market drivers from inflation and interest rate expectations, the path of the economic expansion and corporate earnings to be the most important determinants of
market direction.
Despite the current geopolitical uncertainties, we therefore maintain our tactical overweight in global Equities relative to Fixed Income.
