Betingelserne for en mulig stærk, global ekspansion er på plads. Merrill Lynch hæfter sig ved, at en genrejsning er begyndt i flere lande; der er en stigning i brugen af credit cards; flere indeks for økonomien er forbedret i både USA og Europa; der er sket en stærk stigning i forbruget, f.eks. i Skandinavien. I de store europæisk lande kan aktiviteten være tilbage til før-coronakrisen i løbet af to til fire uger, viser en undersøgelse.
Conditions In Place For A Potentially Strong Global Expansion
Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains extremely elevated, and there have
been doubts about the ability of the hard-hit western developed economies to quickly
come out of the coronavirus pandemic shock.
Nevertheless, evidence of a trough in economic activity in mid-April and a quick rebound is accumulating.
This includes improving credit-card transaction data; stabilizing May purchasing managers’ surveys in the eurozone and the U.S.; the sharpest V-shaped snap-back ever in the German ZEW economic index1 (a 6-month economic outlook leading indicator) from a deep April plunge; a return of consumer spending close to pre-pandemic levels in Scandinavia, as well as a sharp jump in French consumer spending to about 94% of pre-pandemic levels by late May.
According to Applied Global Macro Research (AGMR) June 1, 2020, “if eurozone mobility data continues to improve at the same pace as over the past two months, the four big euro countries could be back to pre-coronavirus levels in two weeks’ time…At the current pace, German truck toll mileage could be back to normal in about one month.”
In the U.S., initial claims for unemployment compensation have been declining fast, and
the St. Louis Fed financial stress indicator has dropped back to normal from extremely
high March-April levels. U.S. mortgage applications for home purchase have bounced
back from their April slump, and the yield-curve spread is once more consistent with
accelerating growth rather than recession ahead.
The fact that manufacturing output has returned to growth in China since March after a deep February dive and car sales/production there have almost recovered their pandemic declines has also boosted confidence in a quick global rebound, as reflected in stronger-than-anticipated global equity-market performance since mid-March.
The narrowing of credit spreads confirms stock-market expectations for substantially improving economic conditions, as spreads typically decline when the growth dynamic improves.
In our view, the recovery is likely to continue to surprise to the upside in terms of speed and strength, as the massively positive employment report for May seems to confirm.
