De mindre selskaber, smallcap, går en hård fremtid i møde, vurderer Merrill Lynch. De har klaret sig godt siden marts, og de får gavn af det forestående opsving. Men de er ikke så solide som de store selskaber, og mange vil blive udsat for overtagelsesforsøg fra store selskabers side. De er også mere udsatte ved en øget handelskrig med Kina, og hvis der sker forskydninger i forsyningskæden.
An Update On Small Cap Equities
In the last couple of years, and for the better part of the last decade, U.S. large caps have
continued to outperform small caps (Exhibit 5).
Given the higher risk profile, the smaller size segment faced greater challenges in the face of weaker earnings growth and a slower and often fragile global economic backdrop.
This trend continued during the March selloff, but on the tails of massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, small caps, as measured by the Russell 2000 Index, are now up 52% off the lows, although still down 12% from the January high.
This small-cap rally ranks high relative to history, with the percent gain over
the last 50 trading days second best to the surge off the March 2009 lows, according to
Strategas.
Large caps, on the other hand, have also seen significant gains, with the Russell
1000 Index now up roughly 44% off the lows and down only 1% year-to-date.
In the near term, small caps are likely to be supported by an improvement in economic
activity as states continue the reopening process, economic data looks less bad, and
investor risk appetite builds. Rising merger and acquisition activity may also keep
valuations supported for those companies with a niche technology or product that may
be attractive for larger companies to bolt on.
However, small caps still face headwinds from record-high leverage ratios, shorter average debt maturities and an elevated number of non-earners, all signs of lower quality, according to BofA Global Research.
Strategas reports the percent of small-cap non-earners is now 42% versus 18% for
large caps. Small caps have also seen lower earnings growth over the last three years,
averaging 6.4% relative to large caps at 10.9% and, with lower profitability, may face
higher dividend pressure in a shock.
So far, over 100 mid and small cap companies have cut or suspended dividends, more than double the number of large caps, as reported by Barron’s.
Smaller companies have also been adversely affected during this period of social distancing as larger companies have been seen as “more essential” and remained open and have been able to access the capital markets to bolster their cash positions.
The recent reescalation in the trade war between the U.S. and China poses another
risk, especially with many small caps serving as suppliers to multinationals or facing
challenges themselves in shifting supply chains.
Consider an allocation to both large and small cap equities within a well-diversified
portfolio. However, large caps provide a more appropriate balance of Quality, Yield and
Growth and should be emphasized from a 12- to 18-month perspective.
Grafen viser forholdet mellem store og små selskaber.
