Analytikere venter, at de store amerikanske virksomheder får et fald i indtjeningen på 15 pct. i år, men Merrill vil ikke udelukke, at faldet kan blive større på grund af den nuværende lockdown, der kan blive længere og værre, end mange venter.
Uddrag fra Merrill:
Earnings clarity. It’s little surprise that there remains a great deal of uncertainty surrounding corporate earnings as companies face major setbacks due to the shut-down of the global economy.
As earnings reports trickle in over the next couple of weeks, investors’ focus has turned to forward earnings guidance rather than Q1 results, with the coronavirus shock to last quarter’s earnings likely already discounted during the March selloff.
However, as investors look to the future, companies are offering little transparency. Over 20% of companies have suspended earnings guidance to date, primarily among the consumer discretionary and industrials sectors. Meanwhile, earnings estimates for this year continue to be revised lower, with the sharpest revisions recorded in recent weeks.
Analysts are now projecting earnings declines of -15.2% for the S&P 500 in 2020 according to FactSet, versus estimates of just -3.4% on March 31. There is likely to be significant downside even to these estimates; BofA U.S. Equity and Quant Research expects 2020 EPS of $115, down 29% from the prior year (Exhibit 4).
Exhibit 4: Evolution of Earnings Estimates.
First quarter results have already come in weaker than average. With about one-quarter
of S&P 500 companies having reported as of April 24, in aggregate, companies have
reported earnings that are 5.1% below expectations.
