Morgan Stanley har analyseret effekten på energimarkedet af krigen i Ukraine og drager den konklusion, at energimanglen vokser, og at regeringerne ikke bare kan droppe vedvarende energi og satse på mere konventionel energi. Der er ikke nok af olie og gas. Derfor må der satses både på grøn energi og den sorte energi. Det vil være helt forkert, hvis regeringen dropper den grønne energi for at satse på mere olie og gas. Hele striben af energikilder og energiselskaber blive relevante mål for investorerne. Investorerne kan især se frem til, at energiselskaberne kommer i regeringernes fokus i de kommende år.
A False Choice for Energy Policy
As oil prices rise across the globe, investors wonder if governments will continue to incentivize clean energy development or pivot to greater investment in traditional fossil fuels.
With the conflict in Ukraine ongoing, many investors continue to ask questions about the U.S. and European policy response to the rising price of oil. In particular, many ask if governments will continue down the path of incentivizing clean energy development, or pivot to greater exploration of traditional fossil fuels.
But as my colleague Stephen Byrd, who heads North America Power Utilities and Clean Energy Research, pointed out in a recent report, this is a false choice, and it’s one that many policymakers are likely to reject in favor of embracing an “all of the above” strategy.
It’s important to understand that focusing only on traditional energy sources wouldn’t solve the problem in the near term. For example, switching on any dormant U.S. oil production facilities would only replace a fraction of the oil that Russia produces, so fresh explorations ramp up production would be needed, and that could take a few years.
The same could be said about natural gas. The U.S. Has the spare capacity to backfill with Europe imports from Russia, but Europe mostly doesn’t have the facilities to accept liquefied natural gas shipped overseas from America. Germany has announced plans to build two liquefied natural gas terminals, but that could take years to complete. T
he point is, focusing on traditional energy sources alone is no quick fix for high energy prices and energy independence, and therefore there’s little opportunity cost in also focusing on renewable energy development. For that reason, we think western governments are likely to include both clean energy and traditional investments in their strategy going forward. You see this echoed in the statements of policymakers, such as U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry’s recent comments that the US is committed to an “all of the above” energy policy.
So what does it mean for investors? In short, expect energy companies of all types to have business to do with governments in the coming years. That includes traditional oil exploration companies, but also clean tech companies, as market beneficiaries.
