Morgan Stanley mener, at en vaccine vil få en gennemgribende virkning på aktiemarkederne, ikke bare nu, men på 10 og 30 års sigt. En vaccine kan ændre de ekstreme kursudviklinger under coronakrisen, hvor nogle selskaber har haft gavn af den usædvanlige disruption, vi har oplevet. Morgan Stanley kommer dog ikke med konkrete bud på, om det f.eks. vil give kursfald for de, der har haft gavn af unormaliteten.
How Will Markets React to a Workable Vaccine?
For markets, a vaccine may be the most significant sign the world may return to a more normal future. But what are markets pricing in currently?
We could see results from those phase three trials, potentially, in the second half of November.
At the risk of stating the obvious, this is a really big deal. A vaccine is so important because the other option to potentially stop the virus, so-called herd immunity, is riddled with problems.
For markets, a vaccine is therefore our single best marker for getting back to a more normalized future; and that really matters. There are lots of market relationships that are effectively an expression of how normal, or abnormal, investors expect the future to be. And most notably, despite the recent progress in a vaccine, there are plenty of expectations that abnormality will continue.
Equity markets, for example, still put an unusually high premium on stocks that benefit from a more disrupted economy relative to those that would benefit from a more normalized reopening. And it’s a similar story in the bond market, where yields on the U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury are still close to their lowest-ever levels. Again, suggesting abnormality well out into the future.
The more likely a successful vaccine, the more normal the future could look and the less sense that these extreme levels should make. Yes, the world today is a pretty uncertain place, but give it time. It could look very different in the next 10 years, let alone the next 30, and a vaccine would be central to that changing story.
