Morgan Stanley ser nærmere på de enorme kursfald på crypto-valutaerne – på 75 pct. fra november 2021 til juni i år. Alle spørger: Hvornår vil cryptoen nå bunden? Morgan Stanley siger, at mange faktorer spiller ind. F.eks. bliver det afgørende, om der kommer nye stimuli fra centralbankerne. Men banken er meget i tvivl og tør ikke give et bud på udviklingen. Investorer skal lægge mærke til likviditeten i dette spekulative marked, på den historiske udvikling og på, hvad aktørerne selv gør.
Uddrag fra Morgan Stanley:
When Will Crypto Prices Find a Bottom?
After a 75% peak to trough fall in Bitcoin’s price between November 2021 and June this year, it seems like almost everyone in the market is asking the same question. When will crypto prices find the bottom? We will discuss three topics related to this question; the pace of new Bitcoin creation, past Bitcoin cycles and dollar liquidity.
What can Bitcoin’s creation tell us about where we are in the crypto cycle? Bitcoin’s relatively short history means there is little available data, and yet the data is quite rich. In its short 12 year history, Bitcoin has experienced at least 10 bull and bear cycles. Bitcoin creation follows a 4 year cycle. Within these 4 year cycles, price action has so far followed three distinct phases. First, there is a rapid and almost exponential rise in price. Second, at a peak in price, a bear market follows. And third, prices move sideways, eventually leading into a new bull market.
The question for investors today is, is Bitcoin’s price moving out of the second phase and into the third? Only time will tell. There have only been three of these halving cycles in the past, and so it is difficult to conclude that these cycles will repeat in the future.
What about past bear markets? The 75% peak to trough fall in Bitcoin’s price and this cycle is currently faring better than previous cycles, in which the falls after peaks in 2011, 2013 and 2017 ranged between 85 and 95%. There is, therefore, speculation about whether this cycle has further to drop.
Previous cycles have shed similar characteristics. In the bull runs there was speculation about the potential of a particular part of the crypto ecosystem. In 2011, it was the excitement about Bitcoin and the development of ecosystem technologies like exchanges and wallets. In 2020 to 2021, this cycle, there were NFTs, DeFi and the rising dominance of the institutional investor.
In previous cycles, the bear runs were triggered by regulatory clampdowns or a dominant exchange being hacked. In 2013, a crackdown in China led to the world’s largest exchange at that time, BTC China, stopping customer deposits. In this cycle, the liquidity tap dried up as inflation concerns gripped the market.
Central bank liquidity and government stimulus fueled the speculation driven 2020-2022 crypto cycle. For this reason, day to day crypto traders are focusing on what the U.S. Federal Reserve plans to do with its interest rates and availability of dollars.
To find a bottom, there are two liquidity related factors to look out for. First, market expectations that central banks will continue to tighten the money supply, turn into expectations that central banks will resume monetary expansion. Second, crypto companies increase appetite to build crypto leverage again. Both of these would increase liquidity and drive a new cycle of speculation.
Which brings us back to the question about the bottom of the crypto cycle that almost everyone is asking: are we there yet? To answer that question, look at Bitcoin creation, past cycles and above all, liquidity.
