Morgan Stanley forudser et bull market i 2021 på grund af de nye vacciner, der er er på vej. Banken venter en stigning i S&P 500 på mindst 10 pct., og at der bliver tale om et langvarigt bull market, fordi løsningen på coronakrisen fører til en helt ny økonomisk cyklus. De, der vinder på markedet, er primært de mindre virksomheder i de mere traditionelle sektorer, dvs. Russell 2000 frmfor Nasdaq, altså hverken de helt store eller high tech selskaberne.
2021: A Bull with Room to Run
Although near-term worries about the coronavirus and higher interest rates could challenge company valuations, the 12-month U.S. equities outlook may be just what the doctor ordered.
Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley, brings you a variety of perspectives about the latest trends in the financial marketplace:
Today, we got more good news that supports our view on both. Another vaccine was announced today with 94.5% effectiveness in its trials. This tops the 90% effectiveness of the prior vaccine announced just two weeks ago, which was an upside surprise also.
A working vaccine is exactly what the doctor ordered to get the economy fully reopened next year. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the vaccine won’t be ready for mass distribution for another three to four months as case counts reach new all-time highs.
This feeds directly into our short versus long term dilemma when thinking about our 2021 outlook.
I remain a steadfast bull on a 12-month view, both in terms of the economy and the markets.
New bull markets that coincide with a new economic cycle last for years, not months. In other words, this bull has a long way to run. In S&P 500 terms, we forecast 10% upside over the next 12 months, as earnings continue to surprise on the upside due to better top line growth next year, that should lead to extraordinary operating leverage.
‘This is a typical feature of the first year coming out of a recession. However, we see some constraints on valuations as long-term interest rates are likely to rise more than markets expect over the next several quarters.
With our economists forecasting 7.5% nominal GDP growth, a 1% 10-year Treasury bond may be extremely mispriced. This has implications for equity valuations, especially the longest duration ones like the Nasdaq.
Conversely, shorter duration cyclical stocks should get a boost from better growth and higher interest rates. Hence the rotation we’ve been witnessing in the equity markets from the Nasdaq towards the small cap Russell 2000 over the past few months.
Bottom line, as we look forward to the more normal year in 2021, we expect U.S. equities to remain in a bull market with 10% upside for the large cap indices.
However, in the near term, many of the valuations of the stocks that drive these averages will have to fight the headwinds of higher interest rates and the remaining concerns around the second wave prior to the distribution of the vaccines.
The real action for investors is likely to take place below the surface in smaller cap stocks that have greater sensitivity to what is likely to be a very strong economic recovery.
We also continue to recommend investors overweight financials, consumer cyclicals and services, materials and industrial stocks.
