Morgan Stanley ser forholdsvis optimistisk på aktieudviklingen i resten af året. Investorerne skal gøre sig klar til “The Grand Opening”. Det bliver især de stærkt ramte sektorer, f.eks. inden for forbrug, service og banker samt small cap, som kommer igen. Når banken venter en stærk optur, skyldes det de uventet kraftige og hurtige finanspakker fra regeringen og Fed.

Uddrag fra Morgan Stanley:

America’s Grand Opening

Our overarching view continues to be that the equity market bottomed in March on what amounted to a forced liquidation. The monetary policy response has been effective in stabilizing credit spreads and equity risk premiums, which reached the same level for the S&P 500 observed at the lows of the Great Financial Crisis back in March of 2009.

Therefore, it’s unlikely we will approach the same levels again anytime soon. Meanwhile, fiscal programs appear to be getting the money to their desired destinations after a slow start. Which should support both consumers and small businesses until the economy can get reopened. In fact, the Paycheck Protection Program has already run out of money, with increases now being debated in Washington and likely to pass.

We have received quite a bit of pushback to our positive outlook for stocks in the past few weeks. Our 2020 year-end price targets for the S&P 500 are exactly what they were in December because we were already assuming this year would likely include a recession, albeit a much milder one than what we are now experiencing.

So how can our targets be the same given the severity of this downturn that no one predicted, including us? That’s easy, because the policy response is like nothing we’ve ever seen either. And that means a V-shaped recovery next year is likely, which is what stocks are already starting to discount.

Now, with the very real possibility that the economy reopens faster than expected just a few weeks ago, animal spirits are set to rebound from what can only be described as depressed levels.

What this really means to me is that while the stock market has already soared 30 percent off the lows, the pullbacks are likely to be shallower than what many are talking about. In S&P500 terms, a 200 week moving average of 2650 should provide very strong support on what could be a choppy few weeks as companies give us the bad news on earnings and there is more political posturing as states try to decide when to reopen.

We would use this period to add to stocks and credit with a greater focus on the areas that had the most upside to a recovery. These would include some of the hardest hit sectors like consumer discretionary, banks, materials, industrials, and small caps. As Warren Buffett likes to say, “don’t bet against America, especially at its grand re-opening.”