Formue

MS: “Earnings outlook is bad and deteriorating”

Uddrag fra MS, Refinitiv og Market Ear

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson continues nailing market moves. He turned bearish not long ago and continues to deliver his bearish thesis. His latest bounce call was just a technical bounce and we should once again focus on his longer term bearish fundamental view which can be summed up in 3 bullets:

1. weaker inflation data is bearish for stocks …”This makes sense as markets contemplate what falling inflation means for growth and the equity risk premium.”

2. earnings outlook is looking bad and deteriorating

3. weekly survey data falling…demand is basically worsening

Chart shows the perfect overshoot above the 200 day…

Refinitiv

Getting oversold

SPX and NASDAQ are becoming rather oversold here. We are not at extreme levels yet, but still worth noting…

Refinitiv

SPX – that was quick

SPX is down some 8% from last Tuesday’s high print. 3850 ish is a support area to watch closely, as well as the bigger 3800 level. Market continues doing what it does best, frustrate the crowd. Imagine the pain should we see a mean reversion bounce kick in from here…

Refinitiv

NASDAQ – fat and flat

Despite all the narratives and “macro events”, NASDAQ has managed staying inside the range that has held since September. We are still above the November inflation print candle, but getting close to the lower part of it, as well as the lower part of the range. Playing the momentum break out trade has been a costly strategy, both ways…

Refinitiv

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