Formue

Nasdaq i det største kursfald siden finanskrisen, S&P Fut værste måned siden marts 2020, ARK Innovation 28 procent nede i april

Uddrag fra marketear

This is the 12th worst month for NASDAQ ever

A negative 13.3% qualifies for a 12th worst ever. You would have needed -15% to make it into the “worst 10” list (beating November 1973). To be the worst month ever you have to beat October 1987 that has a 27% decline. Our poster-child of this bear, ARK Innovation, actually managed to (-28% in April).

NASDAQ biggest drop since GFC

To put things into perspective: Nasdaq 100 falls 13% in April, biggest monthly drop since 2008.

Bloomberg

S&P500 worst month since March 2020

The S&P 500 slipped -9.60% in April, marking its worst month since the COVID-19 shock in March 2020 (-12%). And tech was not even the worst drag. The most significant sector drivers were: Consumer Discretionary (-2.28% drag), Communication Services (-1.96% drag) and Information Technology (-1.33% drag).

MarketReader

Adjust SPX for inflation…

…and we are down around 18% YTD, the biggest real terms fall since 1974. After Friday’s horrible price action this is looking even worse. Go figure…

BofA

Worst start to the year: but anything can happen

Worst start to the year: the best buy opportunity…? The S&P 500 is down 13.3% in the first 82 trading days of 2022, the 3rd worst start to a year in history. The 4 other “top 5 worst starts” all then rallied 13-28% for the remainder of the year.

Compound

$AMZN now on a 34% drawdown

Equal to the worst in the last decade

@IrnestKaplan

Internal emotional damage

More than 45% of stocks down 50%

More than 22% of stocks down 75%

More than 5% of stocks down 90%.

The only comparisons are Oct 2000 – Oct ’02 and Nov 2008 – Apr ’09

Jason Goepfert

Almost everybody below the 21 day moving average

85% of SPX components are below the 21 day moving average. Green dots mark previous times we saw the same extreme stats.

Tier1Alpha

Bill Gurley on buying drawdowns

The legend Bill Gurley weighs in: “An entire generation of entrepreneurs & tech investors built their entire perspectives on valuation during the second half of a 13-year amazing bull market run. The “unlearning” process could be painful, surprising, & unsettling to many. I anticipate denial. Previous “all-time” highs are completely irrelevant. It’s not “cheap” because it is down 70%. Forget those prices happened.You may be shocked to learn that people want to value your company on FCF and earnings. Facebook trades at 14X GAAP EPS, & is growing 23%. What earnings multiple are you assuming?” (Bill Gurley)

Largest bond drawdown in 42 years

At -11%, this is the largest drawdown in the US bond market since 1980. Back then the 10-year treasury yield was at 12.6%. Today it’s at 2.9%.

Compound

Never ever

The Treasury market has never experienced a start of the year like this since the inception of the JPM Government Bond Index in 1986

JPM

It is even worse for “world bonds”

On course for biggest loss since 1920

Flow Show

And now Bonds and Equities together

This is only the 4th time in 49 years (0.6%!) we experience such a monthly drop in Treasuries AND equities together.

Deutsche Bank

Outflows from “everything”

Net flows into global equity funds were negative for a third consecutive week (-$1bn vs -$17bn the prior week). Outflows from global fixed income funds continued (-$8bn vs -$9bn the prior week). Bond funds have seen net outflows for 15 of the last 16 weeks, totaling $116bn over that period.

EPFR

Outflow mania

It is actually rather impressive that the market is holding up given the poor flow picture. We just printed the lowest 3 week average equity outflow reading since March 2020. Guess somebody is buying…

BofA

Remember the world’s best trader and the dot.com bubble?

Druckenmiller is one of the world’s best traders. Time to review his quote from the 2000 crash:

“I bought $6 billion worth of tech stocks, and in six weeks I had lost $3 billion in that one play. You asked me what I learned. I didn’t learn anything. I already knew that I wasn’t supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basketcase and I couldn’t help myself. So maybe I learned not to do it again, but I already knew that.”

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