Natixis hører til optimisterne på aktiemarkedet, og banken begrunder, hvorfor markedet konstant er steget under pandemien og på trods af stigningen i inflationen. Banken begrunder det bl.a. med den gode indtjening i selskaberne. Det mest afgørende bliver, om krigen i Ukraine snart ender. Hvis der bliver en diplomatisk løsning, vil det få aktiemarkederne til at stige, vurderer Natixis.
Why do equity markets react so strongly to good news?
During the COVID crisis and since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, equity markets have reacted very positively to any good news. Why is there such an optimistic bias among equity investors? Probably because:
Holding cash or bonds generates an extremely negative real return;
Companies’ financial situation improved rapidly in the aftermath of the COVID crisis;
Investors do not expect a sharp rise in interest rates that would make bonds attractive again and cause share prices to fall;
In an environment of negative real interest rates, holding equities protects against inflation.
Since the start of the COVID crisis, equity markets have reacted very positively to good news.
As soon as the COVID pandemic started to recede, as soon as rumours of a diplomatic settlement of the war in Ukraine emerged, equity markets rallied (Chart 1).
We seek to determine why equity investors react so positively to good news, even if it is only of small significance.
Conclusion: If there is a diplomatic outcome to the war in Ukraine, stock market indices will surge.
As a result of negative real interest rates, the good financial situation of companies before the war in Ukraine, the prospect of a limited rise in interest rates, the need to protect portfolios against inflation, investors return to equities as soon as good news appears.
If there were a diplomatic outcome to the war in Ukraine, share prices would surge.
