Natixis hæfter sig ved de forhold, som ifølge banken ikke påvirkes af valgresultatet: I USA kommer der en ny finanspakke på mindst 1500 milliarder dollar – en del mere, hvis Demokraterne får en total valgsejr. I Europa kan det blive sværere at pumpe tilstrækkeligt med penge ind i økonomien på grund af de nye lockdowns, og det tager tid at få den store EU-fond til at virke. Natixis venter lavere indtjening i virkomhederne i 2021 i Europa. Derfor kan amerikanske aktier klare sig bedre end europæiske. Men investorerne skal vente til februar, før der kommer et mere klart overblik over en amerikansk finanspakke.
November Outlook: Market Conditions After the Vote
Economic Resilience (Except in Europe)
Economic data in the US is holding up well, despite higher Covid-19 caseloads and the lack of a subsequent pandemic fiscal package.
Additional Support Measures?
The fiscal impetus is likely to shift to the US again. A number of European countries have already increased or extended support measures, but they are unlikely to be large enough for the extended period of sub-par activity. The EU Recovery Fund should be approved this year, but it will take time to implement and its size might fall short of needs.
While fiscal spending is really all that matters at this point, we can still count on central banks and their nearly unlimited support. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are set to increase their quantitative easing (QE)2 programs in the coming months, and the Federal Reserve could follow suit as inflation expectations have not materially risen.
Overall, I remain constructive on risk assets over the medium term, even if the short term might see further volatility. Sentiment had become more bullish on fiscal stimulus optimism, but has now retreated again, bringing a positive technical support.
Equities
The pre-election volatility has materialized and it could last a bit longer, but I maintain a constructive outlook over the medium term. While next week’s election results can have a big impact on US policymaking for the coming years, underlying supportive factors for equity markets will likely remain in place, regardless of who is president.
Indeed, the fourth phase of US fiscal stimulus is coming, even if markets have to wait until February 2021. Central bank support may no longer be an incremental additional support, but it is maintaining a base. Cash levels remain elevated and positioning has retreated back to more bearish territory after a jump based on fiscal spending optimism.
Concerns surrounding the virus have spiked in Europe with renewed, albeit lighter, lockdowns, but I believe US virus concerns could be overdone and do not expect large-scale lockdowns; growth has proved resilient despite higher cases.