The biggest focus point in Netcompany’s 2021 annual report will likely be the Intrasoft acquisition. We expect more details about it to be disclosed, including the timing of the backlog, which had increased significantly before the deal, and guidance for 2022. In terms of organic development, we expect Netcompany to continue its strong revenue growth, while we see more uncertainty about possible margin improvements. We make no significant changes to estimates, but our updated combined DCF model and SOTP valuation point to DKK 650-755 per share (760-890), as peer multiples have contracted.
2022 estimates: Moderate positive estimate changes
We make small but positive estimate changes ahead of the 2021 report. Excluding Intrasoft, we now expect Netcompany to deliver 17% revenue growth (16%) and a 25.2% EBITA margin (2021E: 24.6%). Including Intrasoft, the corresponding numbers are 55.8% and 20.2%, respectively. We do not expect a material negative impact from cost inflation, thanks to the business model.
2022 guidance: Continued impressive performance
We expect Netcompany to guide for 15-20% revenue growth excluding Intrasoft, supported by the 20% rise in employee numbers as of the end of Q3. Excluding Intrasoft, we expect a 24-26% EBITA margin guidance range.
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