Nordea: En forsigtig ECB-chef indikerer lidt højere renter

Hugo Gaarden

fredag 22. januar 2021 kl. 10:10

Nordea hæfter sig ved den holistiske tilgang, som ECB-chefen Lagarde havde til pengepolitikken på ECB’s første pressemøde i år. Hun udtrykte sig forsigtigt og lagde vægt på, at ECB ser “hele kompasset rundt”, dvs. ser på finansieringsbehovene for såvel private husholdninger som banker og stater. Der er ikke udsigt til nogen ændring af pengepolitikken, og der er ikke udsigt til flere obligationsopkøb. Men Nordea vurderer dog, at der er udsigt til svage rentestigninger, og at ECB vil acceptere det.

Uddrag fra Nordea:

ECB Watch: Holistic compass

Lagarde was balancing her comments carefully today and did not give any new guidance on where the ECB is heading. We think the ECB will gradually scale down the pace of its bond purchases, which leaves some room for higher yields and spreads.

  • No changes to policies from the ECB and balanced comments from Lagarde.
  • Minor tweaks in the statement suggest more openness to scale bond purchases either way and fewer worries about FX developments.
  • The ECB defines favourable financing conditions holistically and does not target any specific yield or spread levels.
  • We expect the ECB to gradually scale down the pace of its purchases, opening more room for gradual upward moves in yields and spreads.

The ECB kept its monetary policy stance unchanged Thursday and Christine Lagarde tried to balance her comments as carefully as possible. This probably reflects both the uncertainty regarding the future as well as the differences of opinions within the Governing Council. Nothing is off the table and the Governing Council continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments.

There were a few minor tweaks here and there, though. The ECB emphasized that the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) could be adjusted both ways. Lagarde has said the exact same thing before, but this time it was lifted already to the monetary policy statement, which is not totally insignificant.

If favourable financing conditions can be maintained with asset purchase flows that do not exhaust the envelope over the net purchase horizon of the PEPP, the envelope need not be used in full. Equally, the envelope can be recalibrated if required to maintain favourable financing conditions to help counter the negative pandemic shock to the path of inflation.

In the press conference, Lagarde pointed out that the word equally meant that while it was possible that the full envelope would not need to be used, it was equally possible that the programme would need to be calibrated upwards.

Second, references to the exchange rate were dropped from the statement but included in the introductory statement, suggesting worries about rapid EUR strengthening had eased somewhat.

The big message remained that the ECB still sees that its December projections remain largely valid, as they assumed only gradually progressing vaccinations and lockdowns continuing throughout Q1. Risks remained tilted to the downside, but had become less pronounced. Lagarde listed both positives and negatives since the December meeting.

The positives included

  • vaccinations had started, albeit with some difficulties
  • agreement was found on Brexit
  • European leaders had reached complete agreement on the Next Generation EU, i.e. the recovery fund, which means more fiscal stimulus will come
  • manufacturing was clearly on a recovery path
  • uncertainty related to the US election results had been removed.

The negatives, on the other hand, included

  • pandemic had worsened in many countries, lockdowns had been tightened and extended
  • activity likely declined in Q4 last year
  • inflation numbers remained extremely weak, and domestic price pressures remained subdued.

Understandably, a lot of focus was on how the ECB defined favourable financing conditions, as preserving such conditions is now the key part of the ECB’s guidance. Lagarde explained that the ECB is taking a holistic approach on defining financing conditions, one that covers households, companies and sovereigns, credit conditions, bank lending conditions, corporate and sovereign bond yields.

She added that favourable financing conditions were the compass, while countering the downward impact on the path of inflation was the anchor. In other words, she wanted to play down suggestions that the ECB was targeting any specific level of yields or spreads, but was taking a much broader view, which in turn leaves the central bank with much more flexibility in how it scales its bond purchases.

We do not expect the ECB to expand the PEPP further. Purchases will likely be sizable still in the first half of this year, when bond issuance needs are large and as the ECB seeks to further strengthen credibility that its flexible approach to the purchases did not mean it would be about to let yields rise. The peak pace of the purchases is already clearly behind and the pace will gradually fall.

Pace of bond purchases already fallen clearly

Pace of purchases to gradually fall

The end of net PEPP purchases does not mean the end of net purchases altogether. The Asset Purchase Programme (APP) also continues at a monthly volume of EUR 20bn, and we expect the ECB to move at least some of the flexibility of the PEPP into the APP later this year, when it concludes its strategy review. The ECB could then continue net asset purchases also beyond March 2022, but the focus will shift back to the APP.

The falling pace of purchases will reflect the proceeding economic recovery but also a compromise between the more dovish and hawkish members of the Governing Council, with the latter group actively reminding that the PEPP needs to be only a temporary tool. Since the ECB has not set any purchase pace targets for the PEPP, it can allow the pace to fall relatively silently without having to make an explicit decision at a monetary policy meeting. This could make the ECB’s exit strategy somewhat easier.

As Lagarde made clear, preserving easy financing conditions is a broader concept and likely also a relative one. This probably means that the ECB will tolerate a gradual rise in longer bond yields, if they reflected a rebounding economy and higher inflation expectations. We see some upside potential in bond yields and spreads and a slightly steeper curve amidst firmer signs of a recovery.

Bond yields edged slightly higher today in response to Lagarde’s message, but the moves were not huge.


Market implied-inflation expectations already rebounded from their lows

Del på facebook
Del på twitter
Del på linkedin
Del på email
Del på print



Statsministerens Israel-besøg: Her er Mettes geniale plan for et stort dansk vaccineprojekt?

Mette Frederiksens besøg i Israel har vakt undren i biotekbranchen og i den finansielle verden. Israel har ikke selv vacciner eller bedre adgang til produktionsfaciliteter end Danmark. Tværtimod har…
Langers Skarpe: Her er forklaringen på ugens blodbad i danske aktier
Life Science
Genmab ramte kursmål og faldt pladask tilbage
Ugeslut: Danske aktier dykkede historisk meget i forhold til europæiske aktier, hvorfor?
Nasdaq; Nu falder de amerikanske teknologiaktier helt sammen
Ex-formænd kritiske over for regelstramning: Risiko for svag bestyrelse for Finanstilsynet
Sampension udvider ledelsesberetningen med flere ESG nøgletal
Rating af Etik & Moral i C25: Novo Nordisk ligger i en klasse for sig
Kapitalfonde rydder op i selskaber baseret på ”den gamle økonomi”
Pres på Lars Rohde: Kræver redegørelse om den “hemmelige” guldbeholdning
Nykredit Invests klimastrategi accepterer kul og olie fra tjæresand
Danske Bank lægger op til hård kurs i aktivt ejerskab i 2021
Genmab og Lundbeck indfører ESG i ledelsens bonusordninger
Her er de største institutionelle globale investorer i kulindustrien
Sydbank befæster førsteplads i obligationsmægler-rating

Seneste nyt

Langers Skarpe: Magtopgør mellem marked og centralbanker forude
Vokseværk i Vestas: Forringet kvalitet og øgede garantier presser resultatet
Analyse: Valuers per money værdi på 300 mio. halveret på en uge
Erhvervslivets resultatskabere: Topchefer, vi lagde mærke til i denne uge

In 2020, Danish Large caps laid building blocks for new strategies

By Morten Sørensen, January 11th 2021 In 2020, the virus crisis has accelerated the processes for strategy and change in many large Danish companies. During the year, a string…

Aktuel artikelserie

ESG analyser

Økonomisk Ugebrev Samfundsansvar bringer løbende ESG-analyser af C25 selsakber. Analyserne er datadrevet og perspektiverer selskabernes bæredygtige strategier til markeder, konkurrenter og finansielle eller forretningsmæssige forhold.

Andre artikelserier

ESG analyser
KlimaBarometer for Dansk Økonomi
Sustainable Finance
KlimaBarometer for Dansk Økonomi
ESG analyser
Nu løber den europæiske obligationsrente løbsk
EU Rådet støtter nu forslag om land-for-land skatterapportering – læs reaktioner her
Forvirrende politiske signaler fra Christiansborg spænder ben for elbil-salget
Økonomisk Ugebrev: Her er overblikket over vores investeringsprodukter
Moesgaard mobbede Valuer-stifter: Fik én mio. for aktiepost til værdi på 58 mio.
DAX Future: Nu begynder det at blive kritisk for europæiske aktier
Danske investorers aktive ejerskab kikser i sager om menneskerettigheder
Life Science
Starter den næste rejse i Novo-aktien i år?
ESG bør ikke sidestilles med ansvarlig og bæredygtig adfærd
ATP strammer aktivt ejerskab, men danske selskaber slipper
Regnskab 2020: Vestas løfter sløret for ny vækst i 2025
Langers Skarpe. Gamechanger på nervøst aktiemarked: Afvent renteudviklingen
Jesper Berg: Her er Finanstilsynets styrker og svagheder
Vækstfonden har fiasko med dyre landbrugslån

Seneste nyt

Turnaround i B&O: Accelereret vækst mulig fra næste år
Coloplasts forventninger trues af usikkert 2. halvår

Mest læste

Få dit daglige nyhedsoverblik i din indbakke

Seneste rapporter fra eksterne rådgivere

Nu bliver det et krav at registrere sine overvågnings­kameraer
Er du og din virksomhed klar til besøg fra Konkurrence- og Forbrugerstyrelsen – både på kontoret og i private hjem?
Få overblik: Ændring af konkurrenceloven
Dybdegående og original 
journalistik siden 1994

Økonomisk Ugebrev har i mere end 25 år leveret indsigtsfuld og dagsordensættende journalistik og analyser til læserne og den brede offentlighed. 

Vi tager ansvar for vores indhold og er tilmeldt:


Telefonisk henvendelse: 70 23 40 10
Telefonerne er åbne alle hverdage fra: 10-15
Salgschef: Sidsel Bogh

Skriv til os på:
Vi bestræber os på at besvare henvendelser indenfor 24 timer.

Økonomisk Ugebrev A/S
CVR-nr.: 31760623
Sundkaj 125, 3. sal
Nordhavn 2150

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs


Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank





Merril Lynch 

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker



Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet FED Watch Monitor Tool




Log ind

[iteras-paywall-login paywallid="qwerty123"]