Lønnen steg i Sverige med 2,1 pct. i marts, men det var i virkeligheden et kraftigt fald i reallønnen på 4 pct., det største i årtier. Det er den meget høje inflation, der trykker reallønnen. Den har de seneste år konstant været lavere end lønnen – svingende mellem nul og tre procent om året. Nordea venter dog en stigning i lønningerne i de kommende måneder, fordi beskæftigelsen er meget høj.
Sweden: Big drop in real wages
Wage growth increased to 2.1% y/y in March, well in line with expectations. Real wages declined by 4%, the biggest drop in decades.
Wages rose by 2.0 percent over the year during Q1 according to the Swedish National Mediation Office estimates.* In March, wage growth increased to 2.1 percent y/y.
Real wages declined by 4.0 percent y/y, the biggest decline in at least three decades.
Wage growth is difficult to interpret at the moment due to the current agreement covering 17 months, until the next scheduled wage increase this April.
Looking ahead, we expect wages to pick up markedly from April and onwards. Wage expectations are rising, firm’s inflation expectations pose a large upside risk and our preferred wage model suggests a marked pick-up in wages this year. In addition, labour demand is at an all-time high.
On average, we expect wage growth of 2.8% in 2022 and 3.8% in 2023. Wages are thus set to break out of their 2.5% decade-long average.
Today’s outcome contain little information as the new wage period has not yet begun. The next outcome including preliminary numbers for April is published shortly after the Riksbank holds its next monetary policy meeting. Therefore, they will have to rely on other indicators, which all point to a strong labour market and increasing domestic price pressures. For the first time, the Riksbank has to safeguard the nominal anchor from the upside.
*These numbers are assessments of the final figures by the Swedish National Mediation Office. These numbers are revised each month (for a full-year) before becoming final.
