Pandemien er kommet tilbage med fuld tryk, og nu er de ikke-vaccinerede kommet i centrum i hele Europa. Men er forholdsregler, der er rettet mod de ikke-vaccinerede, nok til at bremse en vinter-pandemi, spørger Nordea? Bliver de gjort til syndebuk for alle problemer, eller bliver det nødvendigt med en gennemgribende booster-vaccination? Og nye generelle lockdowns? Vi kan gå en barsk vinter i møde, og en ny corona-bølge vil ikke lette presset på inflationen, snarere tværtimod.
Nordea weekly: The inflationary pandemic of the unvaccinated
Targeted measures against the unvaccinated are unlikely to work wonders for the virus spread, which makes broader restrictions likely in 4-6 weeks from now. This will likely make the ECB err on the dovish side despite increasing lock-down-flation
We warned back in September how lockdowns would become relevant again within a matter of months despite right about every politician declaring victory against Covid-19. We currently see targeted measures against those who remain unvaccinated across Europe to combat “the pandemic of the unvaccinated”, but these measures are very unlikely to work wonders for the virus spread as studies show that the vaccination-effect on transmission risks wanes quickly three months after the second jab.
Maybe a broader booster-jab-strategy will be attempted before the lockdownistas will gain the upper hand and implement broader restrictions during the winter? At least it will be interesting to see what authorities will do when they figure out that scapegoating the few un-vaccinated will NOT change the course of the virus spread.
We remain very sceptical that inflation is about to drop back for the same reason as the pamphlet of political decisions taken through Covid; i) direct transfers, ii) vaccine mandates and iii) restrictions on services consumption (leading to a pick-up in goods consumptions) is very inflationary in nature and we are about to be served MORE of that same cocktail this winter, not less.
Chart 1. Inflation surprises remain historically high, while economic surprises are negative
We have recently gotten partial lockdowns in several EU countries, and this has arguably been EUR-negative (though many clients don’t care – hence the “arguably”). These lockdowns so far primarily involve locking down the Untermensch (the unvaxxed) and implementation of vaccination passports instead of locking down whole swaths of the population.
This limits the economic and market take-away’s (in this weekly we won’t mention that the vaccinated carry the same viral load as the unvaccinated, which means that the push towards vaccine passports make no scientific sense whatsoever, at least not unless booster-shots are given to everyone).
In Austria the unvaccinated will now be lock-downed, while the vaccinated can carry on almost as usual. This is unlikely to work wonders for the virus spread, but it may lead to extreme political polarization instead.
But as Germany’s Drosten (the “Fauci of Germany”) said in a big interview – perhaps this two-tier system for the citizens won’t be enough, and if not, schools may need to be closed – or more… Even Sweden’s public health agency – which has tread its own path so far – has flagged that new restrictions could be introduced during the winter.
