Mens aktionærerne og boligejerne har oplevet usædvandligt høje værdistigninger under pandemien, så har lønindkomsterne fået et dyk, og i Sverige er der tilmed blevet et fald i reallønnen, også selv om der er voksende mangel på arbejdskraft. Det kan føre til pres fra lønmodtagerne for at få hævet lønningerne, men Nordea tror ikke, det vil føre til reelle lønstigninger før den næste runde af lønforhandlinger næste år. Mens lønningerne steg med 2,3 pct. i gennemsnit i 2021, så var der i januar et fald i reallønnen på 1,3 pct. målt på årsbasis.
Sweden: Wage agreements dragging down wage growth
Wage growth slowed to 2.3% y/y in November, due to the setup of the current wage agreements. Real wages declined and real wage growth is the lowest since 1993.
Wages rose by 2.7% (y/y) for the first eleven months of 2021 according to the Swedish National Mediation Office estimates. In November, wage growth declined to 2.3% y/y, due to several wage agreements falling down to 0%. Agreed wage growth was on average 1.6% in November, down from 2.8% in October. Real wages declined by 1.3% y/y, the biggest decline since 1993.
Wage growth are difficult to interpret due to the unusual wage round during 2020.
Nevertheless, so far wage pressures remain moderate. The increase in wage growth recorded over the summer has lost momentum and total pay rises in 2021 will likely be 2.7% y/y, in line with wage growth during the last decade.
Going forward, we expect wage growth to pick up. The decline in real wages will increase wage pressures. The exceptionally tight labour market also increases the probability that wage drift will pick up more markedly next year. More companies will chose to increase wages to retain people on the back of high labour shortages. In addition, firms’ inflation expectations are high.
On the other hand, the Swedish wage model has a strong norm around the industry benchmark for wages, and the current wage agreements set modest wage growth up until the spring of 2023. So far, more employers abstain from recruiting people rather than offer higher wages. Wage expectations are moderate, speaking against a bigger lift off for wages.
All in all, we expect wage growth to pick up more markedly later in 2022 and into 2023. The inflation numbers this fall will be important. If inflation would remain high, contrary to expectations, then the unions will face lots of pressure from members who have seen negative real wage growth ahead of the next big wage round in 2023.
*These numbers are assessments of the final figures by the Swedish National Mediation Office. These numbers are revised each month (for a full-year) before becoming final.
