Nordea venter ikke pengepolitiske ændringer på ECB’s rådsmøde på torsdag. Men Nordea ser dog en risiko for en mere høge-agtig politik fra ECB’s side, som kan presse renten en smule i vejret. Nordea tror også, at euroen kan blive presset opad.
Risks tilted towards slightly higher yields and spreads as an immediate response
While no monetary policy changes are expected at this week’s meeting, Lagarde’s message will still be listened to carefully. Most likely, her comments will not trigger any major market moves.
However, we see risks tilted towards a slightly hawkish market reaction. Further suggestions that the flexibility of the bond purchases means a lower pace of purchases ahead and focus on not having to use the full PEPP envelope could lead to somewhat higher yields and spreads as an immediate response.
On the currency side, just repeating the December comments that the euro plays an important role and the ECB monitors it very carefully could put slight upward pressure on the EUR.
German yields have not followed US equivalents higher
Despite political turmoil, the widening of Italian spreads has been quite modest
