Nordea fokuserer på det politiske opgør, Sverige befinder sig i. Regeringen risikerer at lide nederlag i en mistillidsafstemning på mandag i en sag om reform af lejeboligmarkedet. Men uanset om der kommer en ny regering end den nuværende, lettere venstredrejede, ventes der ikke de store forandringer. Markederne har ikke reageret på spændingerne om regeringen, fordi landets finanser er solide – og fordi der ikke ventes større politiske ændringer med en ny regering.
Uddrag fra Nordea:
Sweden: Government crisis or…?
There is currently a majority in the Riksdag for voting down the government in a no confidence vote.
There are some plans to reform the market for rented flats, which the Left Party is opposing. As a consequence, the Left Party today announced that they no longer have confidence in Prime Minister Stefan Löfvén.
Since 2018, Löfvén’s Social Democrats have been in government with the Green Party and with support from the Centre Party and the Liberals as well as indirect support from the Left Party.
The Moderates, Sweden Democrats and Cristian Democrats have declared that they also will vote to oust Prime Minister Löfvén. Thus, a majority in the Riksdag seems ready to vote against the government.
The no-confidence vote will take place on Monday 21 June at 10.00.
It remains uncertain whether the government will step down. There will probably be negotiations in the coming days between the government and the Left Party. A likely scenario is that these negotiations will result in a compromise, which in turn means that the Left Party will abstain on the no-confidence vote.
If the government does step down, there would probably be difficulties forming a new government. The Moderates, Liberals, Christian Democrats and Sweden Democrats do not have a majority in the Riksdag, either. The Centre Party thus holds a key position.
The outlook for the government budget and public debt will not change in any crucial way, whatever the colours of the government. The public finances are solid and most parties back the policy of fiscal prudence.
The financial markets have not reacted to the news about the government crisis.
The next general election to the Riksdag is scheduled for September 2022, and an extra election before then is not likely.
