Den svenske økonomi voksede kraftigere end ventet i første kvartal, nemlig med 1,1 pct., omend det er på minus o,5 pct. på årsbasis. Væksten steg gennem første kvartal og nåede op på 2,1 pct. på månedsbasis i marts. Dermed er Sverige tilbage på niveauet fra før pandemien, skriver Nordea. Der er gode tal for eksporten og forbruget. Alt i alt er Sveruige kommet bedre gennem den tredje bølge end forventet. Nordea venter ikke, at Nationalbanken vil hæve renten.
Swedish Q1 GDP review: We’re back!
The Swedish economy recovered faster than expected in Q1. GDP is already back to pre-crisis levels.
The Q1 GDP flash estimate came out at +1.1% q/q and -0.5% y/y. Our call was +0.5% q/q and -1.3% y/y. The Riksbank saw Q1 GDP at +0.8% q/q.
SCB’s monthly indicator for March was also out this morning. GDP improved during the course of Q1, and GDP was up 2.1% m/m in March and thus back to pre-crisis levels.
There are no details in Statistics Sweden’s press release for the quarterly flash. However, we know from monthly data that exports of goods as well as household consumption rose swiftly. Imports were high too, dampening growth.
All in all, the economy mastered the third wave of the corona virus clearly better than expected. When restrictions are eased and the spread of the virus is down, growth will be boosted further. We see GDP growth at 4.0% for FY 2021. Considering today’s robust GDP figures and the strong NIER Tendency Survey, we may very well have to lift our forecast.
In a different world, strong GDP growth and higher resource utilisation would have meant higher interest rates. However, the Riksbank focuses on inflation and it is not likely that inflation will be high enough for the bank to take the foot off the accelerator. But the strong trends make a rate cut or other stimulus measures less likely.