Truer en ny runde af lockdowns i Europa, netop mens sommerferien står for døren? Det er det spørgsmål, som Nordea gennemgår. Den nye Delta-variant har fået England til at udskyde sin genåbning med en måned. Nu er spørgsmålet ikke længere, om Delta kommer til resten af Europa, men hvornår, og det skyldes, at europæerne ikke er så langt fremme med vaccinationerne som englænderne.
Biweekly Corona Update: “Indian” Delta variant could be detrimental to the European corona curve
The Brits have postponed their reopening by a month despite rather broad vaccinations. With the EU lagging behind on vaccinations we may be in for another round of lockdowns if (or rather, when) the delta variant emerges.
The delta variant of the virus is contagiously spreading in the UK, and even more recently Portugal and is according to WHO chief scientist “well on its way to becoming the dominant variant globally because of its increased transmissibility”. A study by Public Health England finds that Pfizer-BioNTech’s jab has an efficacy rate of 88 % after 2-shots, however, only 33% after the first dose.
The AstraZeneca vaccine shows an efficacy of 66% after 2 doses. There are elements of uncertainty associated with this study, firstly it only included 1.054 positive cases of the delta variant, and secondly, differences in efficacy rates may also be explained by the rollout of second doses. The AstraZeneca second dose have been given later than the Pfizer shots, and antibody profiles show that it takes longer to reach maximum effectiveness with the AstraZeneca Vaccine.
The transmission in Portugal is predominantly in Lisbon where around 60% of the new cases are of the delta strain, which has forced the government to impose restrictions for weekend travels in and out of Lisbon. The Portuguese government also reports that 66% of the daily cases last Friday in Portugal was in the Lisbon region. In the UK, the delta variant comprises 91% of sequenced cases, and 99% of cases are estimated to be from the delta variant.
With the rapidly growing delta-spread in Portugal and as the EU evidently lags behind on vaccinations compared to the UK (See chart 1), the EU questions regarding the emergence of the delta variant changes from “if” to “when”.
