Den svenske økonomi fortsætter med sin fremgang i 4. kvartal, hvor væksten blev på 0,5 pct. på kvartalsbasis – minus 2,6 pct. på årsbasis – og det var lidt mindre, end Nordea havde forventet, men dog langt bedre, end Riksbank havde forudset. Nordea mener, at den svenske nationalbank konsekvent ser for negativt på alle økonomiske data. Væksten i 4. kvartal og især i december måned viser, at der ikke er udsigt til en rentesænkning.
Swedish Q4 GDP review: Growth, but below expectations
The Swedish economy continued to recover in Q4, albeit only modestly.
The Q4 GDP flash estimate came out at +0.5% q/q and -2.6% y/y. Our call was +1.0% q/q and -2.0% y/y.
There were few details in Statistics Sweden’s press release. The export industry was most likely the main driver, while household consumption probably dropped.
The outcome was below our call but nevertheless well above the Riksbank’s forecast. Numbers for Q3 were revised upwards in late November, and Q4 was much stronger than the bank’s view. The Riksbank’s forecast for Q4 was -1.2% q/q and -5.3% y/y.
Statistics Sweden’s monthly GDP indicator for December was also out this morning. GDP edged up by 0.2% m/m and was down 2.7% over the year in December. The rise on the month was a positive surprise, while the year-on-year figure was lower than expected as November was revised down by around 1% point. The monthly readings show that the economy stalled during Q4.
All in all, the Riksbank is too pessimistic about everything. The better-than-expected economy reduces the probability for a rate cut in H1 2021, while monetary policy will remain accommodative for a long time yet. At the next week’s monetary policy meeting, the Riksbank will most likely emphasise that the situation is still uncertain and that stimulus measures should not be scaled back too early.
