Nordea har ændret sin prognose for den svenske Riksbanks rentepolitik. Nu venter Nordea, at Riksbanken vil hæve renterne to gange i år – i oktober og november – med 25 basispoint hver gang til 0,50 pct. Nordea venter, at renten vil være uændret i 2023, da inflationen ventes at aftage, mens væksten ventes at stige.
Riksbank: *** New call
We change our forecast on the Riksbank. We now see two rate hikes this year.
Our new forecast on the Riksbank is a rate hike by 25bp in September, followed by an additional 25bp rate hike in November 2022. The repo rate will thus be 0.50% at year-end 2022, according to our forecast.
As for 2023, the Riksbank will keep the repo rate unchanged at 0.50% as inflation will come down and GDP growth slow.
The key reasons for why we expect the Riksbank to hike rates are inflation being too high in 2022, the fact that the ECB has turned more hawkish, and the weak SEK.
Our previous forecast on the Riksbank was the repo rate unchanged at zero in 2022 as well as in 2023.
