Den norske ledighed steg uventet i november, til 4 pct. Det skyldes dog primært en stærk stigning i udbuddet af arbejdskraft.
Uddrag fra Handelsbanken:
• LFS unemployment increased to 4.0 percent in November, up from 3.8 percent in October
• Higher than expected: We and consensus expected 3.7 and 3.8 percent respectively
• Driven by an increased supply of labour
According to the Labour Force Survey, employment rose by 2,000 people in November (three months of October-December), whereas the labour force rose by 6,000 people. As a consequence, unemployment increased by 4,000 people. That pushed the unemployment rate up to 4.0 percent in November, following 3.8 percent in October. The outcome was weaker than expected; we and consensus had forecast 3.7 and 3.8 percent respectively.
• Higher than expected: We and consensus expected 3.7 and 3.8 percent respectively
• Driven by an increased supply of labour
According to the Labour Force Survey, employment rose by 2,000 people in November (three months of October-December), whereas the labour force rose by 6,000 people. As a consequence, unemployment increased by 4,000 people. That pushed the unemployment rate up to 4.0 percent in November, following 3.8 percent in October. The outcome was weaker than expected; we and consensus had forecast 3.7 and 3.8 percent respectively.
Again, we were taken by surprise by the increase in the supply of labour. Looking ahead, however, we do not believe the unemployment rate will change much from its current level. Indeed, the momentum of the mainland economy has shifted to a lower gear, something that implies enterprises have scaled down their expectations for employment growth ahead (cf. Norges Bank’s Regional Network). However, the labour force participation rate may not continue to increase by the same pace ahead. That implies the supply of labour is likely to be defined by the growth rate for the working age population, which is rather meager. As such, we continue to believe that the unemployment rate will also be mostly unchanged in the period ahead.
