Fra S&P Global, PMI – læs hele meddelelsen her
Overview US business activity growth edged up to its fastest for 27 months in July, according to flash PMI survey data from S&P Global, signalling an encouragingly strong start to the third quarter. Growth disparities widened, however, with the service sector leading the upturn while manufacturing output slipped into decline for the first time in six months. The positive news was further marred by employment growing at a slower rate, and business confidence in the outlook falling for a second month, fueled in part by rising political uncertainty ahead of the Presidential Election.
Competitive forces meanwhile meant prices charged for goods and services rose at one of the slowest rates seen over the past four years, though some renewed upward pressure on costs was reported. Input prices across goods and services rose at the steepest rate for four months. Output and demand The headline S&P Global Flash US PMI Composite Output Index rose from 54.8 in June to 55.0 in July, its highest since April 2022. Output has now risen continually over the past one-and-a-half-years, with the pace of expansion having improved markedly in recent months after slowing in April.
The service sector outperformed manufacturing for a fourth straight month, with the sectoral divergence widening to the greatest since June of last year. While the service sector expanded in July at the strongest rate since March 2022, manufacturing output fell into decline for the first time since January. Sector variances were also marked in terms of order book growth. Measured overall, inflows of new work rose at a slightly reduced rate, caused by a renewed fall in new orders at manufacturers. However, the overall rise was the second largest seen over the past 13 months thanks to faster inflows of new business placed at service providers, which rose at the sharpest rate for just over a year.
Future sentiment Optimism about output in the year ahead slipped to a three-month low in July, dropping further below the survey’s long-run average. Sentiment was adversely affected by uncertainty regarding the Presidential Election and resulting policies, though companies also cited concerns over the persistent high cost of living in relation to both inflation and interest rates. These concerns were more evident in the service sector than manufacturing, with the latter in fact reporting a pick-up in sentiment from June’s 19-month low, often linked to the expansion of capacity and the anticipation of demand improving over the coming year, especially after the election.
Employment and capacity Employment rose for a second successive month, pointing to a further modest labor market improvement after headcounts fell briefly in the two months to May. Manufacturers reported the stronger rate of increase, though both sectors reported weaker payroll gains than in June.
