Obligationsejerne står over for betydelige risici i de kommende ti år, mener UBS, mens de foregående ti år har været en rimelig rolig periode. Bare den mindste stigning i inflationen vil føre til “a bumpy ride”
Uddrag fra UBS:
The new decade: probably more challenging for bond investors
These reviews are unlikely to result in a dramatic change in the policy approach, at least in the short term, but investors should pay careful attention nonetheless; they represent the first tremors of a reworking of the investment landscape to come. Concurrently, many governments are seriously considering, or have committed to, more aggressive fiscal policy action to address a range of pressing social and structural challenges not addressed by monetary authorities. Some proposals would fundamentally change the macroeconomic outlook in countries concerned, were they to be implemented. At the very least upside risks to inflation would increase sharply.
The metamorphosis of monetary and fiscal policy globally will be the driving force shaping the investment landscape in the months and years ahead. Over the last 10 years the dominance of monetary policy deployed via very low policy rates and QE has been a smooth ride for bond investors. The journey for the next 10 years could be over rather more bumpy terrain.
