Resume af teksten:
Sydkoreas forbrugerpris-inflation steg med 2,2 % år-til-år i marts, en smule under markedets forventning på 2,3 %. På månedsbasis steg priserne med 0,3 %, hvilket også var under forventningen på 0,6 %. Stigende globale oliepriser stod bag det meste af stigningen, men mindre end forventet, delvist på grund af regeringens tiltag som brændstofprislofter og madkuponer. Transportpriser steg 5 % år-til-år, mens fødevarepriser faldt til 0,5 % fra sidste måneds 2,1 %. Kerneinflationen, eksklusiv mad og energi, faldt til 2,2 %. Bank of Korea forventes at fastholde renten ved 2,5 % i april, mens der afventes yderligere udvikling i pris- og valutapåvirkninger.
Fra ING:
South Korea’s consumer price inflation rose in March, but less than the market consensus. Government measures are keeping consumer price pressures in check for now, but we expect inflation to strengthen in the coming months. The Bank of Korea will take a wait-and-see approach at its April meeting
Source: Shutterstock
Consumer price inflation (%YoY)
Core excluding food and energy rose 2.2% YoY
Government measures helped to absorb price shocks partly
South Korea’s consumer price inflation rose 2.2% year-on-year in March (vs 2.0% in February, 2.3% market consensus). On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3%, below the market consensus of 0.6%. Rising global oil prices explained most of the increase, though the impact was smaller than expected. Government measures such as the fuel price cap and food vouchers helped to reduce the impact on consumers. Transportation prices rose the most, by 5% YoY, compared to the previous month’s 1.1%. But food prices declined to 0.5% from the previous month’s 2.1%. The March figures indicate that the uptick in commodity prices has not yet broadened to other products or services. Excluding food and energy, core inflation edged down to 2.2% (vs 2.3% in February, 2.1% market consensus).
Although today’s inflation increase came in below expectations, we expect the recent rise in energy prices to exert a stronger influence in the months ahead. Fuel costs continued to rise despite the price cap. We also expect currency impacts to feed through to domestic prices in the coming months.
Fuel price cap measures helped to limit the gasoline price hike
Source: CEIC, Opinet
BoK watch
Price pressures remain relatively contained due to government support, even as domestic demand is poised to weaken. Thus, the Bank of Korea is expected to keep its policy rate at 2.5% at the April meeting. The BoK will likely take a wait-and-see approach as it evaluates whether external shocks are contained or intensify. It will also consider the impact on growth and financial stability.
BoK will take a wait and see stance at its April meeting
Source: CEIC, ING estimates
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
