Resume af teksten:
Den tyske økonomi oplevede en stærk start på året med en vækst på 0,3% i første kvartal i forhold til det foregående kvartal. Væksten blev drevet af offentlig forbrug og eksport, mens private investeringer og byggeaktivitet skuffede. Privatforbruget forblev uændret i kvartalet. Lagerreduktioner trak 0,9 procentpoint fra den kvartalsvise BNP-vækst, mens nettoeksporten bidrog med 1,3 procentpoint. Fremtidsudsigterne er blandede på grund af krigen i Mellemøsten, usikkerhed og højere energipriser, som alle påvirker vækstpotentialet negativt. Det forventes, at høje energipriser vil hæmme privatforbruget og højere renter vil påvirke byggeaktiviteten negativt. Det offentlige forbrug kan derfor blive den eneste mulige kilde til vækst i det kommende kvartal.
Fra ING:
The German economy has seen a particularly strong start to the year. Looking ahead, however, the outlook appears far more mixed
A strong start to the year has been confirmed. The German statistical office just confirmed that the economy grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of the year, defying the adverse impact of the war in the Middle East, at least for now. According to the statistical office, growth was driven by public consumption and exports. At the same time, private investments and activity in the construction sector disappointed. Private consumption remained unchanged on the quarter.
Inventory reductions weighed significantly on economic activity, shaving off 0.9 percentage points of quarterly GDP growth. Net exports – very often the counterbalance to inventory changes – added 1.3 percentage points to quarterly GDP growth. These big swings normally call for some caution.
Looking ahead, the growth composition combined with the obvious fallout from the war in the Middle East, new uncertainty and higher energy prices, does not bode well for the near-term outlook. It’s hard to see how net exports will be able to repeat the strong first-quarter performance. At the same time, anticipating potential supply chain frictions, companies are likely to hold on to higher inventory levels. With high energy prices, private consumption is also highly unlikely to recover, and higher interest rates will hamper activity in the construction sector. This leaves the public sector as the only possible source of growth in the second quarter. Not a very promising outlook.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
