Det er sjældent, at finansinstitutter under coronakrisen kommer med investeringsanbefalinger på meget konkrete virksomheder og sektorer i specifikke lande, men Pimco gør det i en analyse af Østasiatiske banker, der har klaret sig rimeligt godt under coronakrisen, fordi regeringerne bekæmpede krisen meget hurtigt og dermed undgik en lockdown. Anbefalingerne kommer efter en investorforespørgsel om banker i Sydøstasien. Pimco anbefaler investering i de vigtigste og største banker i banksystemet (systemiske). De store, sunde banker er i stand til at håndtere en forventet stigning i hensættelserne.
Southeast Asia Banks: Strong Capital Positions Should Help Absorb Losses
We expect a faster profit recovery for major systemically-important banks than second tier peers.
While we view the credit quality of banks in these countries as stable, we favour investing in the major systemically-important banks and higher up in the capital structure. A rise in nonperforming loans (NPLs) is likely across all three countries, but net interest margins (NIMs) and capital ratios of the major banks remain healthy enough to absorb those losses.
Investment implications
We favour investing in the major systemically-important banks in Southeast Asia rather than second tier banks. We do not expect any systemic shock, but the profit recovery for smaller banks is likely to be slower, in our view, and the current tight spread difference of 20-30 basis points between the major banks and other banks in the region does not provide sufficient compensation.
