Pimco har et globalt rådgivningspanel, der omfatter tidligere topledere, og panelet kommer i en aktuel rapport med en behersket vurdering: holdningen i mange store amerikanske selskaber er, at genopretningen vil tage tid, uanset det amerikanske valg, men at der ikke er grund til pessimisme. Både USA og Europa vil fortsat pumpe penge ind i økonomien, og Kina sætter ekstra gang i indenrigsøkonomien og i en mere uafhængig udvikling, f.eks. på det højteknologiske område. Panelet venter ikke de helt store disrupters.
Global Outlook and Disruptors
- China recently introduced its new “dual circulation” economic development model, which seeks to reduce reliance on exports and foreign technology, strengthen domestic supply chains, and look to the domestic market as the main driver of China’s growth.
- In the U.S., the longer-term outlook is for a high level of fiscal activity under any outcome of the November elections, but especially in the case of a Democratic sweep. In monetary policy, the Federal Reserve recently announced two changes to its policy framework: a flexible average inflation targeting approach, in which shortfalls from the inflation target will be made up by overshoots; and a commitment not to tighten policy because of low unemployment alone – inflation or other risks would need to be present as well.
- The decision to embark on pan-European fiscal investments to stimulate the economy demonstrates that when it is a question of survival, Europeans will not hesitate to step up and work together.
- In investor sentiment, many CEOs of major U.S. corporations have a relatively sober view of how long the recovery will take, but there is no sense of pessimism about getting there eventually, and no real change in long-term risk appetite.
