Ifølge en analyse i Pimco får politiske beslutninger en voksende betydning for markedet. Pengepolitik og finanspolitik kædes mere sammen end nogensinde. Den stærkt voksende offentlige gæld kan kun håndteres med støtte fra centralbankerne. Det vil føre til vedvarende lave renter. På kort sigt vil inflationen være lav, men der vil være en stigende tendens på langt sigt.
Uddrag fra Pimco:
The primacy of policy
However, if full recovery is likely to take a long time, uncertainty is pervasive, and risks to the baseline are skewed to the downside – views that most economic forecasters seem to share – why have risk markets rallied so much off the March lows?
The most plausible explanation seems to be that financial markets find it notoriously difficult to price “radical uncertainty” and thus tend to ignore it and rather take their cues from more familiar and easily observable factors such as the swift and very large policy responses by central banks and governments.
With monetary and fiscal policies playing such a crucial role in cushioning the effects of the “lockdown recession” and in propping up asset prices, here is what we concluded about the policy outlook and its likely implications.
First, while the risks to the economic outlook appear to be tilted to the downside, we expect the risks to the monetary and fiscal policy outlook to be skewed toward more easing, even in better-than-expected economic scenarios, as the concerns that had started to tilt fiscal and monetary policy toward an easier stance already before the crisis – such as below-target inflation and persistent inequality – are even more pressing now, especially in light of the recent widespread protests across the U.S. and in other developed countries.
Second, this crisis served as a catalyst for ever-closer fiscal-monetary cooperation that will be difficult to reverse. Higher public sector debt levels and larger budget deficits for longer will require ongoing central bank support. Large-scale debt monetization, explicit or implicit yield curve control, and zero or negative policy rates will thus be lasting legacies of the COVID-19 crisis, implying nominal and real interest rates will be lower for longer (see “Post-Pandemic Interest Rates: Lower for Longer,” PIMCO Blog, 13 April 2020).
Third but not least, while near-term inflation pressures are likely to be on the downside, the prospect of continued fiscal activism supported by debt monetization and repressed interest rates suggests to us that longer-term inflation risks are tilted to the upside. Thus, just like economic activity, inflation and inflation expectations may be in for a long climb from depressed levels.
