Pimco hælder en spand koldt vand i hovedet på de, der ser meget optimistisk på det nye år. Pimco ser med kun begrænset optimisme på den globale økonomi og advarer decideret mod en overdreven optimisme. Væksten i år bliver størst i Kina. Derefter kommer USA, mens Europa halter bagefter. Pimco tror ikke, at Europa i år vil genvinde tabet fra 2020. Europa har dog ikke så store statsunderskud som USA og Japan.
Bounded Optimism on the Global Economy
- Global output and demand are likely to rebound strongly in 2021, driven by the rollout of vaccines and continued fiscal and monetary policy support. Inflation should creep up only moderately in 2021. Central banks’ policy rates are likely to remain low, and asset purchases will likely continue.
- Key risks to our baseline cyclical outlook include fiscal fatigue (in which governments return to a more cautious stance), a negative credit impulse in China, and pandemic-related economic scarring.
- While equity and credit markets seem to have priced in a return to normality, we see opportunities in non-agency mortgages and other structured products, select corporate credits, and emerging markets. We remain focused on careful portfolio positioning, capital preservation, and liquidity management: This is not a time for excessive optimism.
