Annonce

Log ud Log ind
Log ud Log ind
Formue

Ratingbureau sætter US AAA kreditrating på watch for mulig downgrade: Gældsloftaftale mangler stadig

Morten W. Langer

torsdag 25. maj 2023 kl. 14:37

Uddrag fra Feedblitz:

The contrast could hardly be more striking. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy emerged from yesterday’s latest round of negotiations with the White House with an upbeat spin but no deal. Soon after, Fitch Ratings put the AAA credit rating for US debt on watch for a downgrade.

 

“I still think we have time to get an agreement, and get it done,” McCarthy told reporters on Wednesday after another meeting with President Biden. A few hours later, Fitch said it was moving closer to downgrading US debt.

“The Rating Watch Negative reflects increased political partisanship,” the credit ratings firm advised. Fitch explained that the ongoing impasse in Washington is “hindering reaching a resolution to raise or suspend the debt limit despite the fast-approaching X-date (when the U.S. Treasury exhausts its cash position and capacity for extraordinary measures without incurring new debt).”

Nonetheless, Fitch offered a bit of optimism, noting that it “still expects a resolution to the debt limit before the X-date.” But with each passing day without a deal to lift the debt ceiling, the threat increases.

We believe risks have risen that the debt limit will not be raised or suspended before the x-date and consequently that the government could begin to miss payments on some of its obligations. The brinkmanship over the debt ceiling, failure of the U.S. authorities to meaningfully tackle medium-term fiscal challenges that will lead to rising budget deficits and a growing debt burden signal downside risks to US creditworthiness.

Republican House Majority Leader Steve Scalise highlighted the dark side of the still-evolving political dynamics when he advised that the House will recess after today’s (Thursday) voting. On Wednesday he said: “Following tomorrow’s votes, if some new agreement is reached between President Biden and Speaker McCarthy, members will receive 24 hours notice in the event we need to return to Washington for any additional votes, either over the weekend or next week.”

Meanwhile, some corners of the bond market continues to price in the potential for trouble. For Treasuries set to mature in the eye on a potential default storm, yields surged. Prices for so-called at-risk Treasuries – maturing between June 1 and June 7 — tumbled, lifting yields above 7%.

Treasury yields overall, however, remain relatively stable, although the policy-sensitive 2-year rate is edging up, closing at 4.31% on Wednesday (May 24), a two-month high. The benchmark 10-year yield also moved up to a two-month high yesterday.

Treasury yields will remain a crucial real-time measure of how the market is pricing in debt-ceiling risk. For the moment, the implied takeaway via the crowd is that a deal that averts default is still the baseline assumption. But the situation is increasingly precarious and is now evolving on a day-by-day and perhaps hour-by-hour basis.

“The underlying assumption is that they will manage to pass some last-minute agreement — pulling out of the same playbook as 2011,” says Gregory Daco, chief economist at accounting firm Ernst & Young.

Tilmeld dig vores gratis nyhedsbrev
ØU Top100 Finansvirksomhed

Få de vigtigste om bank, realkredit, forsikring, pension
Udkommer hver mandag.

Jeg giver samtykke til, at I sender mig mails med de seneste historier fra Økonomisk Ugebrev. Lejlighedsvis må I gerne sende mig gode tilbud og information om events. Samtidig accepterer jeg ØU’s Privatlivspolitik.

Du kan til enhver tid afmelde dig med et enkelt klik.
Tilmeld dig vores gratis nyhedsbrev
ØU Dagens Nyheder Middag - Investering

Vær et skridt foran. Få de vigtigste analyser af danske aktier og aktiemarkedet
Udkommer hver dag kl. 12.

Jeg giver samtykke til, at I sender mig mails med de seneste historier fra Økonomisk Ugebrev. Lejlighedsvis må I gerne sende mig gode tilbud og information om events. Samtidig accepterer jeg ØU’s Privatlivspolitik.

Du kan til enhver tid afmelde dig med et enkelt klik.

[postviewcount]

Jobannoncer

Controller til centralt projektkontor
Controller
Region hovedstaden
Pharma Nord søger en dygtig regnskabsassistent
region syd

Mere fra ØU Formue

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

Påskegave

Få to GRATIS analyser af Novo Nordisk & Zealand Pharma 

*Tilbuddet gælder ikke, hvis man har været abonnent indenfor de seneste 6 måneder

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:
dage
timer
min.
sek.

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Direkte adgang til realkreditinstitutternes renteprognoser:

Nykredit

Realkredit Danmark

Nordea

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank