Regionalvalget på søndag i den rige Emilia Romagna provins vil få alvorlige politiske konsekvenser for Italien og italiensk økonomi, hvis valget ender med en jordskredssejr for højrefløjspartiet Ligaen med populisten Matteo Salvini i spidsen.
Uddrag fra ING:
A key regional vote in Italy over the weekend could deal a further blow to the country’s fragile coalition, which is already reeling from the resignation of Five Star leader Luigi Di Maio. But we believe members of the coalition will seek a compromise, irrespective of what happens on Sunday.
Emilia Romagna regional vote a test for the government…
Following parliamentary approval of the 2020 budget in December, political focus has shifted to forthcoming regional elections in Calabria and Emilia Romagna on 26 January. The latter will be particularly relevant, as the result could have nationwide repercussions.
…as the region is nationally relevant and an historical stronghold of the left
Emilia Romagna is an economically important region and has been run by left/centre-left administrations for the last 50 years (so since regional administrative entities were first created). Recent municipal election results in Forlì and Ferrara, won by right-centre candidates, have shown that this old stronghold of the left has become vulnerable.
Matteo Salvini, the leader of the opposition League party, has been heavily involved in the campaign on the ground, trying to convey to the Emilian electorate the message that the vote, officially to elect a local administration, is in fact very political (and national) in nature.
Di Maio’s resignation possibly adds uncertainty to the outcome
The decision by Luigi Di Maio to step down as a leader of the 5SM just ahead of the Emilian vote adds an element of uncertainty to the local election outcome.
Although the latest developments have added to political uncertainty, we maintain as our base case that the current government can bear the brunt of a possible defeat in the Emilia election. Based on available opinion polls, a national election would be easily won by Salvini and his right-centre alliance. The political cost of a government crisis would thus be extremely high for most members of the current coalition.
This creates a very powerful incentive for all members of the current government alliance to try hard to find a compromise and renew the governing pact, notwithstanding existing political divergences. This process would likely be eased by a victory of the PD candidate in Sunday’s Emilia election, as Salvini would lack the political leverage to call for a snap election.
Political risk would likely increase should a landslide victory for the League’s candidate materialise, as this would likely have an impact on internal politics within both the PD party and the 5SM.
