ECB venter, at inflationen kommer ned på centralbankens mål på 2 pct., men det er en optimisme, der ikke holder, mener Saxo. Inflationen er steget så meget – til mellem 5 og 10 pct. i de store EU-lande – at det er blevet pinefuldt for Europas økonomi, skriver Saxo Bank. Der er øget risko for stagflation – dvs. økonomisk stagnation med høj inflation.
Euro area inflation is not temporary
Euro area inflation is not temporary. This is partially structural. March HICP was painful in most countries: Spain (9.8 % year-over-year), Germany (7.6 %) and France (5.1 %). The only downside surprise was Italy at 7.0 % year-over-year.
This is still uncomfortably high. It is all about energy and food. Energy increased by 28.9 % year-over-year and fresh food by 7.2 % in France, for instance. Expect inflation to keep increasing in the short term at least and squeeze households’ purchasing power.
Thursday, ECB’s Philip R. Lane indicated that inflation may stabilize around the central bank’s target two per cent, among other things. This is a bold call, in our view.
Looking at the latest business surveys in euro area core countries (notably Germany), the risk of stagflation has incredibly increased over the past few months.
In other news, the euro area unemployment rate dropped to a record low in February at 6.8 % versus prior 6.9 %. The unemployment among youth aged below 25, which is usually higher, also dropped to 14 % from 14.3 % in January. This is positive. But the recovery of the job market is set to slow from here on, especially due to the consequences of the Ukraine war.
