Saxo Bank fokuserer på de ekstremt høje energipriser, der i den seneste uge har fået endnu et skub opad, da Kina er begyndt at købe op af energi uanset prisen. Prisstigningerne har i høj grad ramt Europa, især med stigende gaspriser, så Spanien og Frankrig har bedt EU om at tage affære. EU undersøger, om Ruskand udnytter situationen ved at skubbe gasprisen endnu mere opad. Også gasprisen i USA stiger kraftigt, ligesom olien handles til konstant højere priser.
Market Quick Take
Gas, coal and with that power prices surged higher yesterday on mounting fears that tight supplies in Europe and Asia may struggle to meet rising demand into the winter months.
Since China issued its order last week to buy fuels at all costs, the price of European TTF benchmark gas has surged by 30% and at €118/MWh it now trades more than 7 times higher than the long-term average. Coal, the world’s most polluting fuel hit €190 per ton in Amsterdam, a 56% jump during the past month.
The unfolding energy crisis in Europe and Asia has lifted crude oil prices on the prospect for substitution, while US natural gas yesterday settled at the highest price in more than a decade.
Five EU nations, including France and Spain, ask EU to take action on natural gas price surge, urging the EU in a joint statement to react immediately to the price spike and to coordinate activity to improve bargaining power. Reuters reported yesterday that the EU is looking into whether Russia is aggravating the natural gas price rise.
Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) – the global energy crunch is also coming to the US with US natural gas prices rising fast. The US 10-year yield has touched levels just above 1.57% this morning reaching highest levels since May.
The combined effect is a more negative sentiment in equity futures sliding lower. Yesterday’s session failed to take out the previous day’s high, so if the energy crunch narrative builds today with yields extending their rise, then we could see a renewed sell-off. The VIX futures curve is still in contango and thus the pressure remains low in equities suggesting there is plenty of downside risks in equities. The 200-day moving average in S&P 500 futures are fast approaching the 4,200 level which we see as the next big level to be fought over.
Crude oil (OILUKDEC21 & OILUSNOV21) trades higher for a sixth day with rising stockpiles being more than offset by the prospect of surging natural gas and coal prices driving an estimated 0.5 million barrels/day increase in demand for crude oil products. A development that on Monday left traders rattled by the OPEC+ decision to continue its gradual increase in supply. However, Saudi Aramco’s decision to cut its premium to the lowest since March on its November sales to Asia could indicate the market not being as tight as prices are signaling, potentially raising the risk of a correction.
