Saxo Bank tror, der bliver mere fokus på den grønne sektor med grønne investeringer under præsident Biden. Banken forudser også, at der falder mere ro over geopolitikken, og at det økonomiske fokus rettes mod det nordøstlige Asien, hvor væksten bliver stærkere end i Europa og USA. Hvad der sker med stimuli og skattepolitikken afhænger af Senatet, hvor der er dødt løb, og hvor udfaldet ikke er afgjort.
Macro Dragon: WK # 46 = Joe Biden = 46th POTUS…
So from Saxos perspective what can we say with a high degree of probability of a Biden Victory (post contention) & Split Congress?
- Geopolitics will be less volatile, more stable & constructive. We’ll likely see a big US pivot back to RoW, as well as firmer rules of engagement with China. Net-Net big positive for EM & in particular Asia – & in particular there, North Asia – only part of the world that is likely to keep growing unhindered from Covid-19 resurgence in 4Q, vs say Europe or the US
- Energy likely to be an interesting space, as Biden Admin should still be able to enact quite a few environmental rules & regulations that curb future shale supply by raising environmental & enforcement standards, as well as potentially make things more optimal for the clean tech space
- Obviously the whole $7trn Green Tech Infra dream, is dead in the water if we get to early Jan Senate outcome & Reps still in control. For now the Senate is tied at 48 / 48, with 4 seats left (North Carolina & Michigan – leaning towards each party. And two seats in Georgia leaning towards Reps).
- The weight of any action will again move back to the Fed & whoever Biden appoints as Treasury. The delta of YCC & negative rates coming sooner & at greater magnitude has increased. This is why to KVP being short US duration from a medium to long-term perspective is suicide.
- Either way, once things settle (post contention bubble) – relief rally for Equities, yay no taxes if Dems don’t control congress & also just mkt knows who they are dealing with. Plus big tech continue to be monopolies at least until 2022 or 2024. And we will see vol compression return, as well as the USD grind lower (KVP loving AUD, NZD, NOK, MXN, BRL, RUB, CAD, GBP to the upside for the Strategic book, yet think also near-term we could see a big pop).
- Infra/Industrials & cyclicals in general should see quite a bit of shine come off – as should clean tech – before we get a better picture of what a Biden administration can still do there with a split congress. I.e. The US needs a relief-stability package first, before we can even talk infra. Clarity here may not fully come through until Jan.
