I bankens første Market Quick Take for marts er det slående, at Saxo Bank kun fokuserer på risikoen for kursfald på de store amerikanske markeder, S&P 500 og Nasdaq 100. Vil S&P 500 dykke fra 3868 til 3656? Kan Nasdaq 100 falde fra 12.700 til 12.070?
Market Quick Take
Summary: Friday saw US equities nervous and mixed after the enormous volatility in Treasuries Thursday, though yields reversed significantly back lower on Friday, the last trading day of the month. As the month of March gets underway today, equities were strongly bid in Asia as we kick off a week full of Fed speakers and macro data, a key OPEC+ decision, as well as a heightened focus on global bond yields.
What is our trading focus?
Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)–
US equities probed to new lows Friday and managed to stabilize somewhat off the lows, with the Nasdaq 100 Index even closing slightly higher on the day, while the broader S&P 500 slipped to a new low close, although equities bounced back overnight in the Asian session.
For resistance levels, the 21-day moving average in the S&P 500 comes in around 3,868, while the downside swing level is perhaps 3,772 (risk of a capitulation toward 3,656 on a break below).
The pivotal area for the Nasdaq 100 appears to be the 12,700-12,775 area that has served as support on four prior occasions and survived a break on Friday. Below that, the focus could switch to the 12,070 area, site of an important Fibonacci retracement.
