Saxo Bank: Risiko for ny kreditkrise

Den værste virkning ved corona-affæren er, at den kan føre til et sammenbrud af den globale supply-chain, og det kan føre til en ny kreditkrise. For investorer betyder det, at de må satse mere på volatile aktier, der i dag er billige.

Uddrag fra Saxo Bank:

Summary:  Corona-virus is now close to being named pandemic as infections increase dramatically in South Korea, Japan and Italy

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What:
Corona-virus is now close to being named: Pandemic as infections increases dramatically in South Korea, Japan and Italy

Impact:
The main economic result is: An almost perfect storm for global supply break-down. South Korea is key, as in key, in supply chains for technology and similar both Japan and Northern Italy is powerful machine in SME and engineering product. Global economy will NOT be back to normal in Q2 – neither will it be V-shaped recovery. Hence “market” will be disappointed as they continue to play experts on only “gradual impact, too early to tell…” – No not really (see below)

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Action:
FOMC will cut in March
G-20 FM all but promised massive fiscal expansion this weekend in Saudi Arabia
Gold – will continue to rally….. now calls for 2.000 is “neutral”.

BUT….

The main, and overlook, fact is this is potentially the beginning of new CREDIT CRISIS, created by companies dependency on just-in-time business models, extreme leverage financially, and now lack of both products and supply. In a world with extreme leverage in corporate sector, low top-line growth and supply disruption, the cash-flow shortage will potentially mean loss’ in banks, and among investors. The hardest hit sector will be none-listed SME companies, but in later stage global companies will follow.

OVERALL:
The best way to hedge your downside here is to BUY VOLATILITY, which is still cheap. We suggest 8000, 8300, 8500 puts in March  (Please ask GST-sales to help you price)

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We suggest following portfolio for coming period:

  • 20% Long volatility: mainly SPX, NASDAQ and DAX volatility
  • 20% Long gold, silver: main XAUUSD, XAGUSD
  • 40% Long fixed income: 25% TLT(ETF) + 15% VTIP:xnas USD
  • 20% Long SaxoCLIMATE basket

 

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