To typer råvarer har mærket pristigninger den seneste tid: energi og fødevarer. I den forgangne uge er olieprisen steget med 8 pct. og gasprisen med 17 pct. Olien er kommet op på 60 dollar pr. tønde. Også fødevarepriserne er steget. FAO’s fødevareindeks steg med 4,3 pct. i januar, og på årsbasis er stigningen på 10 pct. Der har især været store stigninger på sukker, korn og vegetabilsk olie. Samtidig er der set en stærk stigning i spekulationer i f.eks. korn og ris, og shipping-raterne er steget.
A strong week for the energy sector with crude oil trading higher by 8% while natural gas has surged by 17% on the outlook for cold weather and a strong weekly reduction in stocks. Brent crude oil meanwhile is marching toward resistance at $60/b, the 61.8% retracement of the 2018 peak to the 2020 low.
Driven by a tightening market on expectations that OPEC+ is committed to support further price gains by restraining global supplies even as demand outlook improves as the vaccine-led recovery in global mobility increases. Speculative demand remains firm with added support from renewed reflation focus as bond yields rise further.
The UN FAO’s Global Food Price Index jumped 4.3% in January; a year-on-year rise above 10%. The index which tracks quotes for 95 different food items split into five different categories reached its highest monthly average since July 2014. The latest increase reflected strong gains in sugar, cereals and vegetable oils.
It’s eight consecutive monthly increase, the longest rising streak in a decade was driven by substantial buying of corn by China as it seeks to restore its grain reserves, dry weather concerns in South America, Russian export tax on wheat and lower-than-expected production of key crops in the US.
To top it all up we are seeing a record amount of speculation in key crops while continued disruption in the shipping industry has driven freight prices for grains and oilseeds to their highest levels since October 2019.
