Saxo Bank hæfter sig ved, at Kina forsøger at dæmpe stigningen i råvarepriserne, men at Kina ikke længere er den drivende kraft i prisudviklingen, da opsvinget i USA og Europa skaber en helt ny dynamik. Det kan presse virksomhedernes indtjening og dermed presse aktiekurserne i andet halvår.
Will China succeed in controlling commodity prices?
The Chinese State Council likely put the foot down on commodities in China as several key industries from steelmaking to construction materials were bleeding economically at the current commodity prices.
The big question is whether China can limit the pressure on commodity prices.
With large fiscal expansions in the US and Europe, it seems China is not the dominant buyer of commodities and thus the entire sector has entered a new regime with new dynamics.
For equities it could mean even more input cost pressures and potentially profit margin surprises to the downside in the 2H.
