Top of Mind…

• “Everyone” implicitly assumes that Trump is rational & has a some form of a plan. When everything we have seen, since even before he was elected – remember despite whatever spin they put, according to  Fear: Trump in the White House by Bob Woodward… it was a clear surprise, as it should be when you take three swing states by the skin of your teeth – suggests that there is no rationality here & there definitely is no consistent plan.
• On the Dragon & previously on the Macro Monday’s we have said the only thin consistent about Trump is his inconsistency. So there is this rational assumption that Trump wants to get re-elected, with no real entertainment of the pathway that he has zero interest in being elected.
• At the end of the day he is 74yrs old (sensational energy by the way at that age), a billionaire (as far as we know) & has a laundry list of evidence that suggests he is quite extreme in the sociopath spectrum. We’ve already seen him drop hints all year, that the election could be unfair, rigged, etc.
• And appreciate that’s his MO, yet what if all this is a set-up for what Trump wants to do next? Would he rather do 4 more years of being POTUS or 4 more years of The White House Apprentice &/or some media portal?
• Just saying, lets not jump to conclusions on Trump wanting to win. And with the year we have seen so far… anything is possible. From Pence being president for a week & pardoning Trump, to KVP being completely wrong on the US election results, upcoming colossal fiscal spend in the US, negative bond yields coming to ‘America, dollar dropping to -30% from the highs, etc.
• The problem with assuming that Trump is a rational player & wants to win, is our DNA & upbringing encodes us to fill in the blanks to explain things. Even if its complete hogwash & just another iteration of lipstick on a pig.