Saxo Bank tager et view over de globale inflationsudsigter, og kurven peger opad overalt. Genopretningen, et voksende forbrug, bedre udvikling i de traditionelle, cykliske virksomheder samt pengeudpumpningen vil nødvendigvis sætte inflationen i vejret og dermed renterne, og råvarepriserne vil også få et stærkt ryk opad. Nu gælder det om at ligge på den rigtige side i en helt ny udvikling, skriver Saxo Bank.
Inflation Watch: US CPI, China PPI, Survey Data
Summary: Global reflation continues and inflationary pressures are building. We run through the latest in global survey data and the read through for inflation.
The Feb US CPI read showed benign inflationary pressures, the core rising just 0.1% versus an expected 0.2% m/m, but this is the last of the higher base effects.
Against incoming easier comparisons and Covid-fatigued consumers that are vaccinated and ready to spend, inflation will soon be a lot higher. Transfers have bolstered incomes, the labour market is rebounding, savings are elevated and US household spending expectations are at a 4-year high. This increase in demand will quickly meet supply constraints and rising input costs.
Following the enactment of the latest COVID-19 relief bill, on average the poorest quintile of households will see annual incomes boosted ~20%, generating an increased capacity to consume for those with the highest marginal propensity to do so. Framing this against the backdrop of a structural shift toward fiscal dominance, we will see significantly higher spending and transfers to the individual bringing a lasting step-up in consumption, compounding supply constraints.
That is why we see a pivotal regime change in interest rates/inflation, supercharged by the new era of fiscal dominance, green transformation and supply constraints. Using linear CPI models from a regime characterised by secular stagnation is not going to cut it with these drivers in play.
From semiconductor chips to copper, demand is on the rise while capacity remains constrained. We have underinvested in the production capacity required to meet accelerated digital adoption, green transformation and the recovered spending capacity that comes with this seismic fiscal shift.
Markets have recognised this to some extent and breakevens are on the rise, but inflation will more than “moderately overshoot” based on our methodologies, which is not sufficiently discounted yet. The continued lift in commodity prices, supply constraints, China PPI, ISM price gauges, and Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s along with other global PMI’s are all signalling 3% US CPI could be chip shot against low base effects.
This maintains upwards pressure on yields given the regime change in interest rates/inflation being turbocharged by the new era of fiscal dominance, green transformation and supply constraints. Already a lot of the alpha generated YTD has been in response to a global reflationary cocktail and nascent inflation pressures, as the year progresses it will be increasingly important to be on the right side of these trends. Higher inflation, commodities, cyclicals, and higher rates.
