I dag kommer der job-tal fra USA. Saxo Bank venter, at job-situationen er værre, end de fleste forventer, og at den situation ikke er medregnet i markedets vurderinger. Det tyder på, at tilstanden i den amerikanske økonomi er værre end antaget, og at genopretningen bliver sværere end forventet.
Uddrag fra Saxo Bank:
US Preview: Disappointment ahead ?
Summary: Most market participants expect today’s nonfarm payroll employment report for December will confirm a slowdown in the U.S. job market on the back of the re-introduction of partial lockdowns and an increased number of Covid cases, with consensus standing at +100K versus +245K in November.
Given the disappointing December’s ADP report (at -123K) and available data about real-time activity and business surveys, we think the consensus is still too rosy.
We believe that the risk of a negative reading – which would be the first time since last Spring if confirmed – is higher than most think and has not been priced in in the market yet.
A negative reading would certainly be transitory, but it would paint a disappointing picture of the U.S. economy and signal that many challenges remain to escape from the pandemic.
There are two main reasons that could explain the deterioration in the U.S. labor market:
- Confronted with rising numbers of Covid cases, many States have re-introduced restrictions and partial lockdowns in December, with the tougher lockdown being implemented in California. It is likely to result in a large decline in job creation in the services sector, which has already been captured by the ADP report (negative print at -105K with the sectors most vulnerable being leisure & hospitality, and trade & transport).
- Real-time data confirms the impact of the pandemic on economic activity, then pushing employers to pull back on hiring in December. If we only look at visits to retail and recreation stores, one of the most affected sectors by the pandemic, activity has decreased by a stunning 28% in December compared with the baseline. The extent of the decline is more or less similar to that in March when the outbreak started.
- Another factor that could explain the sluggish dynamics in the labor market is the continued decline in state and local government employment. After providing intense support to the economy in the worst period of the pandemic, many state and local governments had no other choice but to shed labor to balance budgets.
- Since the beginning of the crisis, total government employment has decreased by 1,31 million with a decline of 585K over the past three months. However, with the new stimulus package worth $900bn expected to kick off in the coming weeks, we could see this trend stops or even reversed in January-February.
