Saxo Bank betragter debatten mellem de to amerikanske vicepræsidentkandidater som seriøs – som præsidentværdige. Begge klarede sig godt, men måske klarede Pence sig lidt bedre end Harris. Usikkert om de næste to præsidentdebatter gennemføres.
Macro Dragon: VP Debate = Slight Net-Positive to Reps…
Top of Mind…
VP Debate – Overall Conclusion:
- That was an actual debate. Who would have thought!
- Both VPs are way more presidential than their bosses
- Both sides had good & generally well-articulated points, yet also generally did a good enough job of rebutting or diluting the jabs of one another – there were no killing blows landed
- Was surprised at how much Pence dominated the discussion, talking over his allocated times for the vast majority of the debate, interrupting Harris, ignoring the moderator, etc…
- If you watch the entire debate this is a clear negative, yet you have to take a step back & think most people are not going to watch the entire debate, so there is a greater chance of folks catching Pence having more air-time being assertive, than Harris, who was also strong & assertive
- Had expected Harris to be by far the more dominant one & not sure if this was a strategy on the Dems part… she did seem to keep herself in check. And one has to wonder if maybe the Reps wanted to goad her to snap & potentially play up Trumps’ “Nasty” tag for her
- Moderator was definitely weaker this time around, it’s a tough gig – yet the candidates, especial Pence, walked over her throughout the entire debate
- Pence was very good at sticking to points he wanted to address, even when the moderator was moving onto the next topics – he on a number of occasions went back to a previous point from Harris
- So net-net, it was pretty even – yet likely a victory for the Republicans… i.e. the bar was low for Pence & high for Harris. Yes, a tie in the real world, can actually be a win or loss to someone. Its about expectations going into the event, the actual event & the potential change in future expectations coming out of an event.
- Great to still see a general level of civility, coherence & ability to agree to disagree
- Star of the show was the big fly that landed on Mike Pence’s hair
- Still amazed, they don’t just mute the mics…
- No material changes to markets, like the cross-asset correlated moves that we had post the Biden / Trump talk last wk
- Oct 15 & Oct 22: Whilst in theory there are two presidential debates left, in practice they may not all occur or may both be scrapped. It’s worth noting they are not a constitutional requirement
