Resume af teksten:
Reaktionen på det amerikanske midtvejsvalg var mere afdæmpet end ventet.
Amerikanske aktier steg omkring 1,5 procent, mens olieprisen faldt til 94 dollar pr. tønde.
Renten på 10-årige amerikanske statsobligationer faldt omkring 5 basispoint, og dollaren svækkedes.
Inflationen i euroområdet steg til 4,0 procent, mens kerneinflationen var uændret på 2,5 procent.
Fødevarepriserne steg for både forarbejdede og uforarbejdede varer.
Bank of England ventes at hæve renten med 25 basispoint til 4,00 procent.
Norges Bank ventes at fastholde renten på 4,50 procent.
Riksbanken hævede renten til 2,00 procent, den første forhøjelse i tre år.
Svensk CPIF-inflation ventes at stige 0,3 procent på månedsbasis og falde til 1,4 procent på årsbasis.
Fra SEB:
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Global key stories
The market reaction to the US midterm elections was more muted than expected. US equities rose by around 1.5%, in line with gains in European and Swedish stock markets. Markets interpreted the election outcome as signalling less scope for major new fiscal spending and lower geopolitical risks. Oil prices fell to USD 94 per barrel, the US 10-year Treasury yield declined by around 5 basis points, and the dollar weakened across the board. The much-discussed rotation out of the AI sector, driven by the Democrats’ tougher stance on data centres, was two-sided – falling share prices for companies directly exposed to data centre expansion, but gains for the tech giants, which are now expected to be forced to scale back investment, thereby improving cash flows.
Energy pushed euro area inflation to 4.0%. Core inflation remained at 2.5% and has now moved broadly sideways for several months, in line with ECB forecasts. Services inflation edged up by 0.1 percentage points, driven by base effects, but more interesting was food inflation, with prices rising for both processed and unprocessed food. Food price increases are common in October, but this could also be an early sign that higher energy prices, and perhaps drought conditions, are starting to feed through to other prices. We expect the ECB to hike rates in December, driven more by the balance of risks than by yesterday’s figures.
The Bank of England is expected to hike rates to 4.00%. Both we and the market expect a 25bp hike. UK growth has surprised on the upside this year, while the energy shock is pushing inflation higher. We see today’s hike as an insurance move rather than the start of a new tightening cycle. A follow-up hike in February is possible, but we consider market pricing of around four further hikes excessive.
Watch, listen, read: Today at 09:00 CET, we will broadcast Ögat Live, covering the midterm elections and the latest central bank decisions ( here ). For those who prefer listening, the latest episode of Makropodden is also available, with Jens and Elisabeth discussing the midterms ( here ). And for those who prefer reading, we continue to publish our Nordic Outlook updates, covering the US today and Sweden tomorrow.
Nordic key stories
Norges Bank is expected to stay on hold at 4.50% today. We expect the bank to reiterate that rates need to remain elevated for some time, while keeping the door open to further hikes if the inflation outlook deteriorates. Our assessment, however, is that rates have already peaked, while markets see roughly equal probabilities of a hike and a hold in December.
The first interest rate hike in three years when the Riksbank yesterday raised it to 2.00%. With a more dovish press release and then a more hawkish press conference, Thedéen stressed yesterday that the increase was motivated by stronger growth and increased cost pressures, and that the increase should rather be seen as a normalisation of interest rates. We stand by our forecast of further increases in February and May, but the risk is that they will be fewer or come later. Market interest rate expectations fell slightly after the announcement, while the krona was largely unchanged against other G10 currencies.
More Swedish inflation this morning. We expect the CPIF to rise 0.3% at a monthly rate and that the annual rate will slow to 1.4%, while the CPIF excluding energy is expected to end at 0.4% at an annual rate, 0.2 percentage points below the Riksbank’s forecast. The outcome will be a first test of yesterday’s relatively fragmented view: a low figure provides arguments for a softer interpretation. In a few months’ time, however, we expect rising inflation when more expensive electricity and the restored fuel tax take effect.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/83303
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