Resume af teksten:
Det amerikanske aktiemarked steg fredag efter kraftige fald torsdag, mens Nasdaq faldt 3,4 procent over ugen.
Markedet indregner 76 procents sandsynlighed for, at Federal Reserve hæver renten til 4,25 procent 9. december.
Brentolie handles tidligt mandag til 98 dollar pr. tønde, 16 procent lavere end for en uge siden.
Magtskiftet i begge kamre i den amerikanske Kongres udløste store markedsbevægelser.
Ukraine, Rusland og USA indleder tirsdag to dages trilaterale forhandlinger i Abu Dhabi.
Forhandlingerne skal blandt andet handle om sikkerhedsgarantier og skridt til at nedtrappe krigen.
Israels præsident Herzog har givet Gadi Eisenkot 28 dage til at danne en flertalskoalition i Knesset.
COP31 indledes mandag.
Sveriges Riksbank hævede 3. november styringsrenten til 2,00 procent.
Fra SEB:
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Global key stories
Financial markets struggling to draw conclusions – some reflections. A highly expected shift in control of both chambers of the US Congress – but with an unexpectedly decisive political outcome – triggered dramatic market moves as everyone struggles to draw short- and long-term conclusions about the implications for the economy, technology and geopolitics. Wednesday’s positive stock market reaction surprised yours truly just as much as Thursday’s sharp sell-off. We already knew before the midterms that the AI and tech sectors would face increasing headwinds in the US – and elsewhere. The fact that Trump and the Republicans will now need to pursue domestic, foreign, security and trade policies over the next two years that deliver lower (energy) prices and interest rates for voters and businesses, while turning the words “America First” into reality, could eventually have a calming effect on markets. But anyone expecting Trump to become more predictable, let alone more cooperative, risks being disappointed. The appointment of Miller as his new chief of staff reinforces this view.
A hesitant rebound – some conclusions. US equities rebounded on Friday after Thursday’s sharp declines. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed 0.3% and 1.1% higher, respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was still down 3.4% over the week, wiping out roughly a third of this year’s gains. Analysts – and economists – now need to distinguish between current AI valuations and the long-term implications of transformative technologies for growth, inflation and productivity. The US economy’s solid growth prospects were also confirmed on Friday by another show of strength from the US labour market . Markets now price in a 76% probability that the Fed will raise its policy rate to 4.25% on 9 December. Brent crude is trading at USD 98 per barrel early on Monday, down 16% over the past week. Nvidia’s statements regarding both the investigation into leaked information and Jensen’s affair are contributing to some nervousness surrounding the company. Asian markets are following through on the gains after Friday’s rebound on Wall Street. Equity futures are trading cautiously, but with a positive bias.
Not black and white – AI’s potential remains extremely difficult to assess. Today, there is a temptation to view AI technology as either a saviour or a threat, as heaven or hell. The truth lies somewhere in between. The question is simply where. Recommended reading (in Swedish): A column in Affärsvärlden – “AI is redrawing the map for central banks” .
Putin wants peace talks – but does he want peace? Tomorrow, trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US will begin at official level in Abu Dhabi. The meeting is expected to last two days and will focus on security guarantees and steps to de-escalate the war, among other issues. The Kremlin’s continued aggressive actions, however, show little sign of a genuine willingness to make peace . But the shift in the balance of power in the US Congress (although it will not take effect until 3 January 2027) could introduce new tactical elements into the peace process. But it bears repeating: Trump’s unpredictability is set in stone.
A change of prime minister? Israeli President Herzog has tasked Netanyahu challenger Gadi Eisenkot (leader of the newly formed Yashar Party) with forming a coalition commanding a majority in the Knesset within 28 days, with a possible extension. These political negotiations are also taking place in a new US political context. The situation in the Middle East remains serious, and the risk of further large-scale US military strikes persists following the US elections. Worth noting: Qatar is seeking an agreement that would give UN nuclear inspectors access to Iran’s nuclear facilities .
Climate – COP31 kicks off today. Follow the latest news and developments here .
Nordic key stories
Is Sweden alone in the universe? Tomorrow’s Riksbank minutes – from the 3 November meeting, when the Executive Board unanimously decided to raise the policy rate to 2.00% – already seem somewhat outdated in light of October’s surprisingly low inflation . But monetary policy is, of course, forward-looking. There are signs – e.g. companies’ pricing plans and anecdotal evidence – that price pressures will increase ahead, but hardly dramatically. With other central banks, such as the Fed, ECB and Norges Bank, operating with significantly higher policy rates and in some cases expected to hike again, the question is relevant: are we alone in the universe in being able to maintain a nominal policy rate as low as 2.00% and a real interest rate close to 0%? That Sweden has considerable monetary policy room for manoeuvre was confirmed by Governor Thedéen in several interviews already on Wednesday: there is no need to rush into the next hike. SEB’s official forecast is now for the policy rate to peak at just 2.25% , which could be regarded as a neutral rate. One hike has thus been removed from our forecast. Meanwhile, markets are pricing in a terminal rate of around 2.60%. But the key message to households and businesses remains unchanged: we are not heading back to the previous rate peak of 4% . And that comes from someone who helped draft the Riksbank’s press release when the policy rate was raised to 500% 😊.
At last, a decisive moment. Sweden’s Andersson’s latest revelation that her “government” would consist of the Social Democrats, Centre Party and Greens (S+C+MP) – with no Left Party ministers (V) – raises the stakes, adding to the (S)tress. There is also a tactical game at play: identifying the scapegoat (=V) if the baton (and C) is passed to the Moderates (M) to form a government.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/83476
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